(I’m not an expert btw, so take my words with a handful of salt)

I think that the correct play is to fold unless you cover the sb and bb because the diffrence between getting paid in a tournament to not getting paid is bigger than improve your stack by 2 bb. When you raise in this situation you hope to get folds. So you should ask yourself what is more important getting 2bb and taking a chance to bust just before th bubble or just give up on this hand.

The question in my mind is what you are hoping to get from raising there? Is it worth the risk?

Btw if you chose to raise there you should only raise all in or min bet but i simply preffer a fold

this thread is why top players no longer post to the MHSMTT forum

math is math, look at the math answer, ignore the others

It's not math, but the results of a computer program which uses certain assumptions. For example, the software would underestimate how strong the ace is, because it doesn't consider blocker value and assume that everyone is calling correctly. The ace plays better if some amateur decides to call with KJ or whatever.

In any case, if the software says it is a push, I don't see how you can make adjustments which will show the push is a really BAD play.

From my experience, people tend to over value the mincash in this situation and call tighter, so I would push lighter than the software recommends. If you want a professional answer, you should not get freaked out over the mincash and look at long term expected profit.

OP also posted this in SSMTT, where he got better answers. MTTSNG players are used to making decisions like this many times an hour without huge amounts of money on the line while playing 15 other tables and will make the long term profitable decision rather than an emotional decision.

How is their situation relevant to OP’s, who clearly cares about the min cash and probably isn’t rolled to play these tournaments long term? (Based on the the fact that this has depressed him)

In that case he should fold. However, if he wants professional advice about how to beat these tournaments long term or make a living playing them, then he should push.

I think even long term or make a living playing there he should fold.
Tournaments are all about survival and the most important survival is in this stage i mean it is more important to move from top 16 to top 15 than from top 7 to top 6.

You see this all the time in sng

pro players also will advice you at sit and go when you get to the last 4 to try your best to bust and play a little bit tighter if necessary to advance to top 3 because its the most important

Try your best to bust. I'll have to remember that one.

A typical SNG has payouts of 5-3-2, so the mincash is huge. In this case, 1st place pays 25x the mincash, versus 2.5x with an SNG. The ICM effect becomes more important later in the money than it is right on the cash bubble.

You are right but he Got 11 bb he most likely wont be able to win it all and the min cash is so much more important in my opinion than adding 2 bb to your stack.( i assume that the raise is with intentions you want to gets folds)

It is adding 2.5xBB to his stack. OP has 11xBB and chip leader has 20xBB, so OP probably has an above average stack and has excellent chances at the top places. Stealing and having 13.5xBB may move him into 3rd place. If he had won the allin, he would have had 23.5xBB and have been the chip leader on the bubble.

You also will get blinded down if you wait for some huge hand. It will be harder to steal after the bubble.

This situation is not at all like if you had 11xBB on the bubble of a big tournament and that was 1/5 the average stack. It also isn't like the bubble of an SNG with relatively flat payouts as discussed before.

He did not say the chip lead gotx20. He did not said how much the chip lead got he said that the sb had x20 bb and bb was the chip leader.
but in the situations like the one you described i preffer a min bet which basically does the same tricks and let you get away
Plus its obvious hero doesnt want to get called so why do you talk about what would have happened if he doubled up?

What?

If you have an ace, the chance that your opponent has an ace is 75% of what it would be otherwise. The chance he has AA is 50% of what it would be if you did not have an ace.

ICM/Nash software doesn't consider that. It also doesn't consider the dynamic value of a big stack late in the tournament. It doesn't consider that the remaining players are more likely to have strong hands if it is folded to you in late position. There are various other issues, but the values from software are estimates, not the absolutely correct answer.

True dis. Didn’t help me last night though, when I busted with AQ vs AA, after an A hit the turn.

He probably had KK or maybe QQ, the way he played the hand. Very unlikely he has AA, considering blockers. And then..

Hmmm not sure the point you’re trying to make here, but I’m fairly sure that any calculator takes your A into calculations .

If you’re saying that any calculations are only as accurate as the parameters (opponent range estimates, tendencies) we set - then ofc this is true.

Nick Petrangelo says something similar to this in his upswing course. Not the first paragraph but the second

You have got to be kidding. Who do you think wrote these programs? Mickey Mouse?

The various programs for Push/Fold are unexploitable. The only reason they are 'wrong' is that your opponents won't be responding perfectly (mostly folding too much).

The software is not unexploitable or correct. It isn't written by Mickey Mouse, but also isn't written by God. It gives and estimate, and indicates in what situations ICM considerations are most important.

I don't think it considers blockers. It certainly does not model later play. The value of the stack is obviously dependent on the skill and style of the players. It also doesn't consider the value of a big stack later on pushing around people making ICM folds.

Really? You don’t think these programs account for your hole cards?

No. They also don't consider tells. The best players in the world at the moment, like Daniel Negreanu, can know what cards you have based on eye movements and blinking patterns. A solver will always be limited to its program.

Lol. Get off negreanus . What tells are you picking up at a table? Probably nothing

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Daniel is undoubtedly the best. The way he folded that nut straight to fish2013s boat proves that.


I don't read tells. My skill is in getting reactions out of people, and laughing.

Of course the programs take into account your hole cards.

As for tells, I am guessing even Daniel N, or Zach Elwood (tells expert) could ever pick up a tell on me before I look at my cards. The OP was asking whether to open jam the button.

Negreanu usually knows what you have before you do.