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04-22-2018 , 09:52 PM
NLHE 8 handed MTT. 86 players, 8 places paid, no antes. On bubble 2 tables 4 and 5 players. No dominant big stacks. Blinds 50K/100K. 7 players with "reasonable" stacks and 2 short stacks.On 4 handed table the two short stacks are in the blinds. BB has 4 BB behind and SB has 3 BB behind. Action folded to SB. SB has 9 4 off. What is his correct ( best ) play?

Last edited by riptorn; 04-22-2018 at 10:17 PM.
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04-23-2018 , 12:38 AM
I'm inclined to shove any two here.

I modeled this up if he calls with top 20% or top 50%. I don't think he's calling any looser. You make money either way on average.

Obviously the tighter he is, the less of a nail-biter this is for you. But this is about the most favorable situation a short stack could hope for.
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04-23-2018 , 07:40 AM
that very much depends on the read you have on the player / player pool.....

at 888 midstakes (where I play these days), you can expect a call extremely often, with card removal (none of the other players seemed to hold high cards, so the likely-hood that bb has Ax/Kx is very high) and most regs on 888 call any Ax/Kx ...... so on 888 its most likely a fold

in very high pressure situations (huge bubble compared to most players br) its an any 2 shove

Last edited by Lockerl71; 04-23-2018 at 07:50 AM.
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04-23-2018 , 10:39 AM
How much card removal can you have for 2 folds? You are looking at 4 dead cards that have no a/k.
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04-23-2018 , 11:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverDood
I'm inclined to shove any two here.

I modeled this up if he calls with top 20% or top 50%. I don't think he's calling any looser. You make money either way on average.

Obviously the tighter he is, the less of a nail-biter this is for you. But this is about the most favorable situation a short stack could hope for.
You modeled that factoring in ICM? I'd be shocked if this was profitable if villain calls 50% of the time.
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04-23-2018 , 10:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3for3poker
How much card removal can you have for 2 folds? You are looking at 4 dead cards that have no a/k.
The difference is a couple percentage points. If all you know is that your hand has no A or K, Villain's chance of ending up with Ax or Kx is 29.7%.
p=(1-((42/50)*(41/49)

If you know that the two folder didn't have A or K either, then Villain's chance of ending up with Ax or Kx is 32.1%
p=(1-((38/46)*(37/45))

I'm willing to get it all in, either way.
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04-23-2018 , 11:47 PM
Thank you all for your replies. I shoved as villain was conservative lady who never got out of line and she was the only player left that I had any fold equity with. She woke up with tt. C'est la vie. But I would still do the same again if the situation arises again. Thanks all.
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