he literally shoved 8 out of 10 times in a row, abusing us....

i know, icm wise this is a super easy fold... anyway, are there any voices saying f... icm here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 2.2 Tournament, 2000/4000 Blinds 400 Ante (4 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t150707)
Hero (SB) (t52768)
BB (t21870)
UTG (t44655)

Hero's M: 6.94

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, A
1 fold, Button bets t150307 (All-In)

payout structure?

if he shoved that much easy call.


if u win you r chipleader

i concur

its a 180 man payout structure...

its right i am the chipleader when i win... but i only win approx. 60% of the times... the other times i finish 4th.

and again... wiz tells me that even if he shoves 100% its an easy fold.

i just dunno how much i should give about icm... up to now i have always followed it... but hated it too.

I believe if he mention ICM there´s got to be 3 places paid in this structure but OP when u want a ICM comment from us u need to put the info on the pay out structure.
And giving ur read on villain and the fact thatu have ATo wich is a monster in those circunstances (way ahead of villians range) and also if u win u go from 20% tournament equity to 40% tournament quity and the chip lead dont know whyu day this is a ICM fold just because there´s a shortie thats about to get busto and u secure a 3rd place money..PLAY FOR FIRST¡!¡

Here is the 180 payout structure for the 2.20s if someone wants to figure it out:

1st - 108.00 (30%)
2nd - 72.00 (20%)
3rd - 48.84 (11.9%)
4th - 28.80 (8%)
5th - 23.40 (6.5%)
6th - 18.00 (5%)

By folding ur basically saying ur prefering to secure a 4th place pay out than calling a jam while ur a favorite and earn the chip lead and 40% tournament equity?

i think a-10 is 2 strong a hand though. if you had like the k-j or the a-7, alright wait, but 2 many times u are going to have a nice advantage this hand.

Wiz will tell u to fold this depending what range ur assinging villains to, if he´s shoving with top 15% of hands (wich u know he´s shoving a loooooooooooooot wider), ur basically flipping against that range so, to me against that villain and his recent tendencies this should be a snap call.

OP - what does wiz calculate as the equity difference between pushing and folding?

With villain pushing 100% what range does it say you should push?

Also, you sure you have it set to 180-man structure in wiz?

If he is really shoving 80% of the time this should probably be a snap call.

You are 4 handed how long is it going to take you to get a better hand? or are you just hoping the short stack will bust and you would be happy with 3rd?

If A10 is out of our shoving range what is in? QQ+, AQ+ or are we actually hoping to fold our way to 2nd?

Call here, not close.

We've got about the same stack as UTG, and our lead over BB will be non-existent too if he doubles up any time soon. This is exactly the sort of spot where ICM fails hardest.


if the situation was something like
then you could strongly in favour of making an ICM fold. Firstly, because there two shorties, so you can wait for almost guaranteed HU match, and secondly, because you're against a villain who will open jam 31bb, and you can probably out-play that sort of villain. However, in the OP he is only jamming 13bb.

How does folding equate to preferring a 4th place finish?

On strict ICM, hero's equity in the prize pool currently sits at about 24% or roughly $63. If he calls and loses, he walks away with $28.80 for an equity loss of almost $35. If he calls and wins, his equity increases only to 30% or roughly $79 for a gain of about $15. So by my calcs the risk:reward ratio on the call is about 2:1. Obviously this doesn't consider other factors, such as hero's ability to accumulate chips with the bigger stack, but I have a really hard time seeing how the combination on those factors with the equity of AT vs villain's range, offset the 2:1 risk on the call.

Actually his tournament equity is around 18.65% if he folds but if he calls and wins (wich he´ll do me majority of the time cuz hero is way ahead of villains range) his tournament equity will be 42.12%, meaning that it will more than double making this play a profitable call.

$1,500 starting chips*180 entrance=$270,000 chips in play
(If we fold)
Villains $150,307/$270,000= 55.67% Tournament equity
Hero $50,368/$270,000= 18.65%
Player 3 $17,470/$270,000= 6.47%
Player 4 $44,255/$270,000= 16.35%

(If we call and win)
Villain $97,939/$270,000= 36.27%
Hero $108,366/$270,000= 40.12%
Player 3 $17,470/$270,000= 6.47%
Player 4 $44,255/$270,000= 16.35%

Tournament equity (i.e. $EV) and percentage of chips in play are two completely different things.

I suppose it depends on how much an extra $20 means to you.

You aren't going to get much better spots than this with shallow stacks, especially against the big chipleader. I take the chance here.

alright im not really an ICM groupy, but this statement is so tilting. obv no one on this forum is guna say they really wanted the extra couple dollars. ppl playing 2/180s are trying to build a poker br not a life br (other than a brave few soldiers... smolls?).

anyway, like TT said, i also think icm is a complete fail in this kind of situation. the short stack still has 5bbs ffs. the table draw is perfect as well. if u double, villain will be forced to slow down (theoretically i suppose) and as such u will be able to run over the two on ur left.

You haven't actually done an ICM calculation, all you've done is calculate percentage of chips in play and compare folding vs calling and winning. The whole point of ICM is that the chips he has are far more valuable than the chips he gains by making this call.

I'm aware of the limitations of ICM but can someone tell me why ICM is a "complete fail" in this spot?

ICM simulates an artificial and immediate end to the tournament, with prizes distributed according to lottery. It doesn't take account of stacks/blinds, skill, position or anything else.

In this situation it fails because Hero has an ICM $EV of $63.72; that is a ridiculously high value considering that 4th place is worth just $28.80, 3rd place is almost $15 less at only $48.84 and that a 12.5bb stack will remain perilously close to elimination if Hero folds here, because UTG has basically the same stack as us, and BB is not really that far behind either, only a double-up away from parity.

To exceed that figure of $63.72 we'd have to make it to HU, which is far from guaranteed given how fast things can change in such a short stack situation. Given that the original value $EV that ICM assigns us is absurd, the calculated EV difference is therefore invalid because of the defective starting point for the calculation.

We are so far ahead of his jamming range so we must call. It's highly likely that he doesn't jam most of the hands which actually crush us, probably electing instead to make a small raise with at least QQ+/AK, if not wider. This makes a call even more appealing.

In the alternative situation I posited earlier the two shorties were both on fumes while Hero is reasonably healthy on 31bb, has an excellent chance of getting to HU, and therefore can very easily pass up such a call.

Thank you, it is refreshing when someone comes along with a thoughtful and helpful post like that.

in before gomer is offended!

The question is, is your big stack bully play good enough to get back the $0.18 to $0.25 of lost equity from pushing?

This excact spot remindes me of a 2/180 I had on Sunday pwning at the shorties
If I on the other hand were OP here, I'm calling this and smile as 42o gets there