I am a reg at these stakes, Villain is a loosing player according to OPR, I folded to 3 bets a bunch before, so I might be perceived as a bit loosy-deucy.

I won this tournament before and now I had this shining opportunity and I blew it. Tell me, is this a misstep or a setup with 30 bb deep.

PokerStars Hand #79039460225: Tournament #569010392, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XLIV (20000/40000) - 2012/04/18 4:05:27 MSK [2012/04/17 20:05:27 ET]
Table '569010392 202' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: DavoDam (1817601 in chips) CO
Seat 2: Stunts25 (2193242 in chips) BTN
Seat 3: ronwilk40 (1458344 in chips) SB
Seat 4: Mad1Lee (1117216 in chips) BB
Seat 7: Magic-Push (638229 in chips)
Seat 8: Curioso24 (724242 in chips)
Seat 9: AbdouNeymo (1579126 in chips)
DavoDam: posts the ante 5000
Stunts25: posts the ante 5000
ronwilk40: posts the ante 5000
Mad1Lee: posts the ante 5000
Magic-Push: posts the ante 5000
Curioso24: posts the ante 5000
AbdouNeymo: posts the ante 5000
ronwilk40: posts small blind 20000
Mad1Lee: posts big blind 40000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mad1Lee [Kc Ad]
Magic-Push: folds
Curioso24: folds
AbdouNeymo: folds
DavoDam: raises 40000 to 80000
Stunts25: folds
ronwilk40: calls 60000
Mad1Lee: raises 153345 to 233345
DavoDam: folds
ronwilk40: raises 246655 to 480000
Mad1Lee: raises 632216 to 1112216 and is all-in
ronwilk40: calls 632216
*** FLOP *** [8s 6s 3h]
*** TURN *** [8s 6s 3h] [Qc]
Mad1Lee said, "puke"
*** RIVER *** [8s 6s 3h Qc] [Jd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ronwilk40: shows [Ah Ac] (a pair of Aces)
Mad1Lee: shows [Kc Ad] (high card Ace)
ronwilk40 collected 2339432 from pot
Mad1Lee finished the tournament in 7th place and received $1492.72.

Feel like 10k$ first place was stolen from me, huuuuge tilt.

Seems more like a setup. Hard not to go broke with AK in the big blind if the SB picks up AA. As played, your bet looks like a squeeze, and SB's hand looks like a middle pair that decided it might be able to fold out your light squeezes with a 4-bet. So when he 4-bets, I'd be deciding whether I want to flip with a middle pair with AK at this point in the tourney. Obviously +cEV, but maybe not the best $ play. Of course, that he had AA is just weird.

I mean, that's what I thought, that his range is AJ-AQ, 88-TT which I am ahead of. Obviously to find out that the guy didn't re-raise AA oop being 35bb deep is really weird and tilting considering I happened to had big slick. But can I really fold in that spot? I folded a bunch at this final table to 3bets, I just don't feel like I should fold AK in that spot, dunno.

I don't know what the payouts are at this point, but I'm sure that if the price is right, this is a fold.

FT play is different, not saying I wouldn't get it in.

Seems fine to get it in

I go bust here but you could argue his call/raise is turning his hand face up on FT of bigger 22.

This.

What do you want to do when sb 3bets? Just saying, the way he ends up playing it is way stronger, middle pair is a fantasy here.

Think I'd get it in here, but the point about this being the FT of the Big $22 is a relevant one. On OPR it would be interesting to see how much a big cash would effect his prizes and ROI as this would effect his play, if he hadn't had many big scores we could perhaps fold, he's not likely to 4b without a premium.

Sick that you've won it before and could of done so again.

You know how it goes when you justify a 5bet shove like this: "They've seen me squezzing before" "I had a loose aggro image" "They don't expect me to have AK here often" "It's AK and I got 30bb and I invested 20% of my stack and this fish is being weird".

Sigh. Overall, I don't think he is turning his hand face up, because flatting AA oop being 40bb deep on FT is a real mistake, imo, he got really lucky i woke up with a hand in that spot. But still tilting, 1500 instead of 10k first place, yuck.

I'd hardly say that first place and $10k was stolen from you. I mean, at the time you were 5/7 and you got it in as a 15-1 dog. Yeah it's a cooler, but hey, it's poker and it happens.

Posting the actual results does make it more difficult for people to give you objective analysis when we know his exact hand, which is why, in the FAQ, titled please read before posting, we explicitly ask you to omit the results; we also ask that you use the hand converter which is built into the 2+2 forum — looking at that unconverted wall of text and trying to make sense of it is enough to make one's eyes bleed.

Here's how it should have looked





To the hand....

You've got AK and 27 bigs, and you're facing a LP minraise steal coupled with an OOP flat from the bigstack fish in the SB; I'm not sure how you can ever justify a fold here, or why you would ever want to. After posting, you have <1.1m chips and there's already 235k out there in the middle when it gets to you first time, more than 20% of your stack. Frankly this is bordering on a 3bet/shove. 3betting that size is probably losing you value as you're the one whose bet-size is pretty much announcing "I have a monster". Jamming might get calls from weaker Aces and smaller pairs than would otherwise pursue versus your actual bet-size.

His 4bet-sizing is moot, because your 3bet now means you're getting the right price to jam anyway if his range is as tight as QQ+/AK and he never ever folds. I suppose you could consider a flat pre, then donk-jam any flop, giving you a tiny bit of FE against the AK part of that range if he whiffs, and hand equity against the QQ or KK part of that range if you connect, but that's a matter of preference imo, and if he has AA then it just wasn't meant to be.



As for the hand from his POV....

If he's seen you as a loose player who's been keen to raise it up pre, but won't flat much, then his flat is actually fine if he wants to induce you to spazz into his AA, so I'm not sure why you think his play is a mistake here — after all, he's got you to do exactly what he wanted you to do. The range of hands with which you put chips into the pot is much smaller if he 3bets than if he flats and lets you 3bet for him. You're never flatting or 4betting air because you're not even close to deep enough to 4b/f, which means he has to rely on the very small chance you've actually got the goodies, particularly as he already holds 2 of the only 4 aces in the deck, slashing the odds of you holding, say, JJ+/AK.

And he can't rely on CO having anything stellar either; that's much more often than not simply a regulation steal attempt from late position. In fact, this almost a perfect spot for him to flat his Aces imo, because if you're the type of player who almost never just calls the minraise then if you don't 3bet then he's basically certain of getting HU against CO instead of there being much chance of a 3-way flop. And the range of hands which CO will pursue to the flop is smaller if SB 3bets than if he flats and lets CO cbet the 2-way flop.

I think I flat or jam. I dont like ur 3bet size at all. If he calls SB has to call then you're oop in no mans lands and it makes u want to jam all flops.

Fwiw he calls behind to induce a squeeze and gets it. His raise to 480 blows at first look but its to induce again even if it screams KK AA AKs but I don't see folding too often. In game I drunk shove, thinking long aboout it the 480 can't be anything but nuttish cause he can't even do this with a bluff.

TeamTrousers, thanks for the update on forum rules, honestly, my mistake, kinda new to posting on these forums. Pretty solid analysis, but I still think that he played badly and got lucky with these stack sizes and his position. I would call any suited or connected hand given the pot odds and he would be facing 3-way pot with aces out of position versus better players. But who I am to critisize losing players for their antics.

Now to those who advocates jamming I think it's kinda bad because despite getting the right odds to take money in the middle I am always crushed by their calling range, because both of these players are playing relatively close to the vest and even if they think I might spaz here they won't call me with AQ because they are nitty and scared money. I want my sizing to scream "I have a monster" because by 3betting small I give myself room to balance my 3bets with much lighter holdings and I generally like to have a room and not commit too much.

JoeyJoJo Shabadu, very nice point on "drunk shove", I should really take more time to think here that he very unlikely to 4bet 33% of his stack with middle pair, however, the pot odds are just too good to fold with AK.

EDIT: Somehow this hand reminded me of Phil Hellmuth whose tournament game I still admire very much, because he sometimes make amazing folds in similiar spots.

stick it in his eye.

misstep

presizing is pretty bad. 275k/get it in if you have been active.
prob just 3bshove if you are a nit.

Can you elaborate on presizing?

I already did.

Jamming is not bad. You're never 3 bet folding and we don't mind winning 200k right now with high card ace, we have FE etc. The rest is explained.

And Phil Hellmuth is a jerk and a tilt monkey.

Well you told that if 2 players call I in a bad spot on 2/3 of the flops, but in my mind my sizing won't ever provoke a call since they have to put like 20% of their stack pre, which they never do as they play scared money on FT of bigger 22. And even if they do I am not really comitted to jam any flop because I still have 24bbs behind and I invested 6bbs in a 3bet so I still have room to wiggle-jiggle. So that's why I ask you to explain your thoughts on 3bet sizing, like should I 3bet more/less and why.

Yes, 200k is ok, but I feel I have fold equity against the range I am well ahead off, like KJs+, 22-TT, ATs-AQs, so what does FE gives me? I'd rather have them spew shove with that range than fold it, and as I explained I think they never calling the shove with a range I can beat or even flip against.

And I still love P.H., I like his "star attitude", he is always fun to watch and he is a very decent live tournament player, he managed to get 3 second places last wsop which is a great achievement when you take into account the fact that he plays quite a few tournaments every year and poker is much much more dificult nowadays than it was when he won his bracelets.

it's inducing them to call with the correct odds vs your actual hand, but you want them to 4bjam light > call the 3b light.
if you had AA its the other way round.

I don't have they ever get correct odds to call with 30bb stacks with anything. It's a final table, nobody is investing 20% of their stacks pre in a 3 way spot vs 3better with small-middle pairs and hands like JT-KQ.