I don't have much knowledge of ICM, just figured I had enough equity. Any thoughts? thnx guys!

You don't have any FE here against two hands whose ranges crush AJs. Fold, with 20+bbs or AQs might be a different case but this is a fold.

I think jamming 15bb is ok if UTG was opening wide as a big stack close to FT in a huge field tournament.

Wait, what? We have 40% vs a pretty nitty utg range (8%) and can easily have >50% if he's at all laggy. There's no way sb's range is crushing us, we're probably ahead of it. I think jam is clearly > fold barring utg being a ridiculous nit and I'd flat long before I'd consider folding vs ~everyone.

I'm cool with the shove. We are short enough that we are going to be hard pressed to find ideal spots to chip up even vs weak competition. We don't have a ton of FE but it's a non 0 amount and the SB is often dead money.

nh

Missing lots of info - Thats probably why different opinions. imho...

What is the read on the UTG raiser? The flatter? Table image of the Hero?

Admittedly the two villains stacks a quite deep (didn't pay a ton of attention to that prior). However this open from a 8% pfr first to act is more likely to be a top 4% hand imo, one cannot assume that an open from someone who raises 12% pre has the same range from all positions (I know you know this stevepa, but just pointing it out).

I still don't love this spot because I feel like there is a decent percent of the time we get called by both and we get folds from both hardly ever. I think we get iso'd here by these top ~5% of hands from UTG+2 quite often.
Quick stove shows the following. I dunno I'm certainly prone to being rusty but I think I like spots with some FE much better than this spot.

top 4.8%

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.126% 59.80% 03.33% 53244684 2962890.50 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.874% 33.55% 03.33% 29869343 2962890.50 { AdJd }


---

104,450,544 games 0.000 secs 20,890,108,800 games/sec

Top 5.4%

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.475% 57.44% 03.04% 59996250 3170402.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.525% 36.49% 03.04% 38113490 3170402.00 { AdJd }


---

feels fine unless UTG is a nit opening ~<7%

Is everyone still shoving without the sb flatting? Not to distract from the post but just a point

SB has 140bb. And you`re blocking hand he could be rarely trapping with.

homanga, 8% was just a random number I invented, don't think OP indicated anything about UTG's stats. I think 8% is a super conservative estimate, vs a random I'd guess an avg utg minraise from a guy with lots of chips is 12-15%ish

yes, SB makes it better for us for obv reasons. he is rarely bladed and mostly folding so we need less equity overall vs OR.

I'd been playing pretty tight after a 3 bet and c-bet went sour and left me with a short stack.

This was UTG first hand at the table..so no info. He was top 3 (and german) so i thought he'd be opening ap/high & suited paint/ some suited conn.

Once small blind called i figured there was enough dead money for a shove. He was loose and pretty bad, could well be ahead of his range.

Maybe I'm being a lil' results orientated with this one. But afterwards I still felt there's prob. a better spot to dubble up and be back in it. I just couldn't find a fold. AJs looks so pretty after an hour of crap.

Goddan, I think it is close. With your stack size, the (almost certainly) dead money, your injured table image with other players at the table, and the admittedly small possibility utg will fold, I would probably make same play you did.

Has anyone mentioned that we totally have fold equity. And not a small amount at all. People fold to tiny reshoves all the time. (I mean, they aren't folding 50% or something, but I expect 20% isn't out of the realm of expectation depending on stats). Also, everything stevepa said about how AJs is an awesome hand. Chips go in the pot, it's where they belong.

^this. fe is everywhere, people just don't see it.
snapshove

Both of those things are wrong

Yep, I was so confused when homanga said we had no FE. This seems like a totally standard jam.

We jammin'

I may have mentioned it