Hey

I have villain pegged as a loose spazzy player. He was playing an averaged VPIP/PFR of about 45/25 from the MP/CO/BUT positions over about 110 hands. These stats are backed up my observations of this first hand below (villain is MP2) from one orbit ago which shows that his actual opening range is likely even wider than his stats indicate:





So with this info, if we give villain an assumed very wide opening range of something like 64%, and that he calls a shove 100% of the time (maybe he folds the very bottom of his range. See the hand below though) then our equity against his range is about 51%. Doing the EV math on this we would net 3195 on average from shoving. If we fold we would have 2820 chips. So this is a difference of 1.9 BB's (or 13.3% of our stack).

I'm guessing there may be some different opinions about what opening range i'm giving villain (if we take out the bottom 14% of my above assumed 64% range our equity only drops to 49%).

In the hand i shoved and the results are below (obv the actual result of the hand is not important). What I would like to know is whether we have to take this spot for this amount of +EV with our somewhat small stack, or are we best to wait for a better spot, value our tourney life, etc etc?

Thanks

p.s. when i made the shove in-game i assumed i would fold out these bottom hands of his opening range. My above comments/calc's are based on what now seems to be the fact that he doesn't like folding after opening.

Given villains stats and his opening range, this seems like a pretty standard shove IMO

It's defo the correct play
You shouldn't be results oriented but instead be decision oriented

You made the correct decision, you just got unlucky

Yea, its actually more profitable to shove hands like that against these players because you know they're calling light. On the bubble you might avoid these high variance spots because of ICM implications but that's a whole other topic.

Yup looks fine

Nh

lost a flip, unlucky. GG

Seems a bit too loose as a default but fine given description of villain.

fine

Fine against the villain who you have info on, just ul.

/thread

Just fine vs villians opening range, here far away from Money i take the chance.

At the bouble i might fold, since he is not going to fold much with thoose stats.

fine against a player with 45/25 stats

I'm going to go against the grain and say fold it. I agree that mathematically and based on stats its fine but I just think with 14bbs you can wait for a better spot here. Im not a mathematical based player but A3 is not that great and yes you might have the equity but theres a lot of hands that he will have at least 40% or more here. If he is a bad as you say he is you might get 77, a10 plus in a few hands and be a 65% dominant favourite at worst likely 70%

yeah sure let's ignore reads and wait for better spots with 14xbb, JJ+ or AK should come sometimes