Disclaimer: I am terrible at math.

(But I write accounting and business process software for a living...go figure)

Anyway.

Whenever you see a hand posted, the relative stack sizes are important, the blinds and antes are important. They are pretty much built into all of the hand converters. But there are other things that people offhandedly mention that have a big impact on the nature of the table. The starting field size, blind speed, people left etc. Field Size!

So, I wonder, could you come up with some sort of formula to determine the most likely skill level of your villains? Does something like this already exist and is there some quasi M?

One thing that I noted in a recent post regarding micro donkaments is that the late tables of a .10 are often pretty tough. I have encountered better players at that table than I have today in the early levels of a $4.40 180 man.

So, without further rambling, I think the variables in this hypothetical formula would be (in order of importance):

1) Starting field size
2) Current field size
3) Blind Speed
4) Buyin
5) Rebuy?

Thoughts? (And if this has been exhaustively covered, much apologies)

I'm a bit confused. Is your question: Is there a measure of overall opponent skill at your table?

Sherman

Yeah, that's the idea. I find that the bigger the field, the more sloppy people play early. The faster the blinds, also, the sloppier the play. The closer I am to the final table relative to the starting field, the stronger the play.

I think the toughest thing about such a calculation would be to consider the effects of variance. If you use a .10/360 stars turbo, for example, it's practically a freeroll. Say some superdonk running insanely hot shoves on the first hand, gets 3 ****** calls, and quadruples up? Then doubles a couple more times. This would pretty much give them enough chips to basically fold their way to the late stages. Does this give any indication of their skill level?

I'm not sure I'd be able to trust such a formula as a decision aid. When the tourney gets down to say, 1/4 of the original field, I'll generally give the players a little more credit but even then I've seen many, many stupendously ******ed plays.

I'm thinking it might just be better to trust your HUD numbers here.

Absolutely. This is really only to address the "no reads on villain" type situations.