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Bad Bet on the Turn with KJo? Bad Bet on the Turn with KJo?

07-26-2018 , 01:39 PM
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 200/400 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP+1): 24.5 BB
CO: 30.32 BB (VPIP: 29.17, PFR: 4.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
BTN: 44.56 BB (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 25)
SB: 117.25 BB (VPIP: 13.79, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
BB: 42.55 BB (VPIP: 38.89, PFR: 27.78, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 18)
UTG: 25.98 BB (VPIP: 36.00, PFR: 39.13, 3Bet Preflop: 30.00, Hands: 25)
UTG+1: 52.77 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 25)
MP: 24.89 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has J K

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.2 BB, CO calls 2.2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.2 BB

Flop: (7.9 BB, 3 players) Q A 8
BB checks, Hero bets 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 2.5 BB

Turn: (12.9 BB, 2 players) 5
BB checks, Hero bets 4.5 BB, BB calls 4.5 BB

River: (21.9 BB, 2 players) 5
BB checks, Hero checks

Hero shows J K (One Pair, Fives)

Hero wins 21.9 BB

Villain is a loose/aggressive in spots but also passive in others. Hero believes that Villain calls flop bet with all AxXx, QxXx, 8xXx and sets of 88 and two pair with AxQx. Hero believes Villain also calls with KxTx, KxJx, JxTx, Tx9x, hands. Hero believes Villain can either raise or flat with Ax8X. Turn comes 5h. Villain checks. Hero bets 1800 into a 5,150 pot. Upon review Hero is not sure this is correct. Hero is ahead of a large part of Villain’s range. At the time hero felt like he was betting for value here because Hero thought straight draws was the most likely holding in this loose player’s range. I think a better line would be to check the turn with the intention of calling a river bet on a blank. River comes 5c giving a board of QcAd8s5h5c. Villain checks. Hero checks seeing no reason to bluff what could very likely be the best hand.

What line do you think is best here based on Hero's reads?
Bad Bet on the Turn with KJo? Quote
07-26-2018 , 01:54 PM
preflop could go either way... KJo seems a little on the looser side especially because you'll get handcuffed a lot postflop since everyone covers you. I don't hate raising but just tread lightly.

I think a cbet is standard here and I like your small sizing. Turn bet seems unnecessary, I would probably just give up. Your rationale is that he's calling Ax Qx or 8x OTF and maybe floating with Kx or Jx combos. Problem is you block a lot of that range with your hand.

If you are gonna double barrel you need to size up OTT. he's gonna float you with any 8 or T 100% of the time when you bet that small. I would aim for around 60% pot if you're gonna take this line.

I would be cbetting once and then giving up OTT most of the time. also, why would you want to call a river bet if you checked back turn?? let's be clear..your hand does not have SD value and you should be mucking it all day. you're at the bottom of your range and it's a questionable open in the first place
Bad Bet on the Turn with KJo? Quote

      
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