I think there's a point that their, especially the openers, range to call a jam is actually wider than it is to jam over a 3bet because the 3bet looks stronger, if this is the case then jamming makes a ton of sense, we are not jamming QQ+ so the raiser will correctly remove them from our range which, when we have AQ is good for us.

I don't think you understand what's necessary to 3bet light in this spot.

Let me put it another way what do you think being "capable" of 3betting light in this spot means?

dereds you actually think he treats this the same when we 3bshove 30BB with two to act comapred to when he opens CO and we are BB and close action and its 20BB eff?

as said before. 3b/f blockers to the hands they get in.
3b/c some more of the combinations like Axs/A9o/KJs/KQo/JTs vs CO which are folds vs the blinds.

Sorry I kinda need an answer to the "capable" of 3b/f question. Like telling me what hands you are doing it with isn't the same as why you are doing it in a specific spot?

You think you can 3b/c A9o profitably? What range do you think he jams? I'll tell you now if you think he is jamming a range that A9o has the required equity against I'm not sure you should have a 3bet fold range.

you always want exact ranges from me which i cant give you since i've not played the hand.
i'm just stating that we get more value with AQ here when we 3b/c compared to 3bshove since we almost never fold out better hands from the 3 players to act after we 3b and that OP and V had active 3betting dynamics (which is why OP flatted).
i'd 3b/c him with A9o here mostly simply because of dynamics and yea i think V will shove a range that we have the Equity to 3b/c against for this spot.

you care about balancing between 3b/c the top of the range and 3bshove weaker hands w/o taking into account that we would not 3bshove alot of combinations like A4o for 30BB eff that could be 3b/f for 21BB vs OR.
so while the 30BB shoving range excludes QQ+ it also excludes alot of the Kx and Ax blockers and ask yourself which are more combinations and how that would influence OR's and the blind's ranges and how often they might think to have FE with a mid PP/broadways/Ax


good discussion about a river spot btw

well they can fold pairs which is good and while we don't fold out better we don't fold out better when we 3b/c either. When we jam however we have the top top of our range in a spot where having the very top of our range is kinda cool.

The thing is if you are 3bet calling A9o against the C/O then he has to be jamming too wide for us to 3bet fold. Being capable of 3bet folding here isn't about our ability to click buttons (I know, I do a ton of button clicking) it's knowing that there's a wide enough disparity between his opening range and his jamming range that a 3bet fold is profitable.

Now when we add in the times we get jammed on by the blinds lets say 9% across the two for arguments sake then us being able to call the CO with A9o getting ~2/1 means he just isn't folding often enough for us to 3b/f blockers.

I don't hate 3b/c against jamming far from it I'm not even convinced that jamming is better but I am pretty sure it's not worthy of the criticism it's received itt

river seems a pretty trivial call.

i just think its as simple as this
3bjamming cant be bad simply because we have ****ing AQ vs a wide CO range 20BB eff with active 3betting dynamics and "just" 30BB eff vs blinds so when they wake up with a monster it takes aways some EV but the jam itself is very +EV cause as you said he will folds tons and can tiltcall with worse as well.
still 3betting seems better since we set this spot up with previous 3bets and it just makes no sense to set him up and then shove 30BB vs his open (even tho its just 20BB eff vs him, its 30BB eff for us with two to act)
imo its as awful as to keep stealing someones blind with garbage with minraises ~15-20BB eff and when we have a good hand we openshove into his blind.
just makes no sense to me, sry.

It makes no sense because you think that he will believe he has FE against a 3bet and I don't think he will.

I don't think he tiltcalls worse I think he calls with worse because why would we jam better? It's a circular argument not going to go anywhere.

That said if you are 3b/c A9o you think he's going to jam how wide against a 3bet?

with these positions/active player/3betting history i'd asume he jams quite wide for value
maybe not as wide as every Ax/broadways/pairs but certainly ~A5s+/A8o+/QJs+/KJo+/55+/+some tiltshoves with K6s or something
dunno if we are +EV against that , might prove my point to 3b/c A9o wrong and in that case make it ATo but there is a big difference in our 3b/c range to him compared to the blinds

if he jams wide for value don't 3b/f blockers

huh? most hands of above get blocked by Ax and Kx type of hands so he will have these hands less often.
def 3betting Ax blockers as default, Kx is closer with history

nah seriously I don't have stove here but construct a range to 3b/f that makes A9o a call if he jams

I doubt you can do it

if you are calling A9o and you are 3bf blockers you are 3b/f A2-A8?

something like that yea

what would your standard 3bet size be in this spot and I'll demonstrate why 3b/f that range is a mistake and probably why calling a9o is a mistake as well

1030ish

seems good I'll get back with some numbers in a while

cool ty. will you compare it to 3bshoving A2-A8 as well?

Yep sure, it'll be a few hours before I get home but I'm interested

but dont fake the numbers vic

haha fair enough

this is what i was getting at.

So Furo, apologies tl:dr but I didn't want the nation of champions on my case

This has actually ended up a little more complex than I initially thought so I'm going to break it down into sections so I understand it.

Firstly I'm going to try and calculate the Ev of 3bet folding where we fold against everyone.

There's 980 in the middle we raise 1030 we need folds 52% of the time to show a profit. This assumes we don't get flatted. We do but I doubt we're better than EV neutral when we do.

Assuming the blinds jam AQ/99 which seems reasonable given positions and stacks. Our A blocker reduces the combinations of 99/AQ to 57 there are 1225 combinations so they jam in or around 9% of the time. Given the range the OR is raise folding contains some blockers to their jamming ranges we will call it 8% of the time we get cold 4bet.

If they jam 8% of the time we need him to jam no more than 40% of the time to break even on the 3bet.

Now to work out the point that 3b/c A9o and 3b/f A8

Co 455
Hero 1030
2 folds
Co jams 4216
Hero 3186 to call pot 5771
Hero needs 35.5% to break even

Villain needs to jam exactly 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KJo against this range A9o has 35.9% equity and should call A8o has 34.8% and should fold. KJs and KQo are both break even calls, as is A5s.

This constitutes 10% of hands, given we need him to be folding 60% of his opening range to make money 3b/f we need him to open 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo.

However this is break even calling on the 3186. We've contributed 1030 of it. We only break even on the 3bet if he folds 60% of the time and we can only call if he jams 10% If his range alters in the slightest, he open jams some stuff we need in his 4bet range 77/88 for instance. If he doesn't open that range we need him to 4bet tighter and if he 4bets tighter than that A9o loses money calling.

A break even 3bet is costing you money when you make a break even call to the 4bet. It may be that we can 3b/c A9o profitably because he's jamming wider than that but if he is jamming wider than that we can't fold any blocker we 3bet.

There are just no viable ranges where we can profitably 3b/f Ax and 3b/c A9. I know I haven't considered the blocker to his jamming range because we need him to open 25% of the time open jam nothing and 4bet jam too narrow a range for it to matter.

Seriously the flop-check is among the worst i'we seen. Seems like your lacking any kind of further plan for you hand. river is obv lolsnapcall

tl dr dereds
thanks for the math, it shows that its close with A9 but its imo not a fold with A9 with the dynamics they had.
3b folding Ax blockers vs him in this spot might be a mistake but its marginal either way with A2-A8. prolly a 3b/c > 3b/f but ingame i'd 3b/f the weaker part of that range w/o thinkings its bad or w/e, with A8o i'd hate it but prolly fold quite fast.

math on 3bshoving? correct mine if i made a mistake, its early

asuming you 3bshove A9o and the blinds call 8%(including Ax blocker) with 99+AQ+ and OR calls 9%(including Ax blocker) with 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KJo and he opens ~29% of hands (took your range from above and added A2o-A7o) and asuming only one of them calls too keep it simple, overall EV is slightly worse when we get 2 or even 3 caller


we shove, both fold (Blinds coldcall 8% of the time, CO r/c 34% of the time)
.58*980 = +568
we shove, one blind calls (asuming 31BB eff)
.08*.26*6800 = -142
we shove, blinds fold, OR calls
.34*.355*4725 = -570

568 - 142 - 570 = -144

adding overcalling ranges(more than 1 caller) its prolly ~-200cEV
a 3bshove with A2o-A8o is worse since it has less Equity vs calling ranges.

3b/c still seems best to me =)