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AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money

07-16-2014 , 01:43 PM
87 player live MTT $100 buy-in. Just made the final table, bubble just burst. I don't remember the exact payouts but this is really close, so let's assume:

1st - $2200
2nd - $1466
3rd - $880
4th - $645
5th - $513
6th - $425
7th - $337
8th - $264
9th - $190
10th - $120


Chip Counts are also estimated, but not far off:


Seat 1 (SMALL BLIND): 50,000
Seat 2 (BIG BLIND): 1,000,000
Seat 3 (UTG): 400,000
Seat 4 (UTG+1): 350,000
Seat 5 (UTG+2): VILLAIN 515,000
Seat 6 (UTG+3): 375,000
Seat 7 (UTG+4): 700,000
Seat 8 (HIJACK): 400,000
Seat 9 (CUTOFF): HERO 565,000
Seat 10 (BUTTON): 145,000

Blinds are 30,000/60,000 with a 10,000 ante.

VILLAIN is older dude, pretty tight. Only remember him playing one hand earlier with about 25 players left, in which I min-raised 88 in early position, he jammed, and I called. He had AK. Didn't see him play many other hands.

Seats 3 and 4 fold, VILLAIN (515,000) raises to 120,000. Seats 6, 7, and 8 fold. HERO (565,000) has AQ offsuit.

HERO???????

Is this an obvious shove or are there any arguments for folding or just calling with 9 big blinds??
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-16-2014 , 03:41 PM
Is an obvious shove! you have less than 10 bb...
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-16-2014 , 04:28 PM
fold
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-16-2014 , 06:36 PM
Trivial ICM fold and its not even close to a discussion
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-16-2014 , 09:22 PM
Looking at other stacks, I think this is just not a good spot to get the chips in. You still have a lot of equity with your 9bb stack and it has a lot of value in hands that are folded to you pre. You can make moves in the immediate next hands that will be far more +EV than getting this in, if you're even pushing an equity edge, which it's hard to believe you are here. Hard to believe described dude is just oi raise/calling AT or 77 here, probably a lot more likely to fold them pre from EP.

We can basically just treat this spot like we're calling off here since we just have no FE whatsoever. And I think you have to be stronger than AQo to call off 9bb here when 10handed and the avg stack is roughly 8bb? You can print so much money pre in these dumb liveaments with a 9bb stack, it has lots of value, too much to stick in with AQo and the dude very likely has JJ+ anyway.
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-16-2014 , 09:41 PM
I think you can only shove AA here. AQ isn't even close
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-17-2014 , 12:23 PM
Thanks for the replies. I realize now that this was a fold. I'm in my early MTT learning phase so this was very helpful. I ended up shoving, and the villain thought for an entire minute before calling with AK. I thought it was kind of a slowroll, but after everyone here saying that this is such an easy fold for ICM reasons, maybe he had good reason to tank a little, thinking my shoving range is really narrow/strong.
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-17-2014 , 05:05 PM
Not sure these chip counts and blinds could be right, but if they are, one minor consideration is that the small blind is all-in on the blind, so if the BB folds (big stack), there will be 6 BB in the pot if you call and you'll be in position, so a call is not crazy since you may well have two overs, but I'd probably fold here and wait for a better spot. Shove is out of the question.
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-18-2014 , 12:25 AM
You can actually auto fold your entire range here unless you're in the BB and SB is already all in with the blinds and it's folding around to you and you have to call 15 chips to win 80k chips
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-18-2014 , 12:27 AM
Also - if everyone at your table knows ICM and understands it - hate to break it to you but you might be the fish on the table
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-18-2014 , 02:13 PM
I'm fine with admitting I'm not experienced when it comes to making ICM decisions. It's my first final table after starting to play MTTs live. Also, don't preface a rude comment with a conditional. When the antecedent is false (like it is here), you just look like a jerk.
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-18-2014 , 02:16 PM
Thanks to everyone else who provided constructive criticism. I learned a lot.
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-18-2014 , 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boobsicles
I think you can only shove AA here. AQ isn't even close
R u serious? Is this a satellite? Payouts in these live tournaments are top heavy and we could have FE. Don't know about AQ, but folding QQ would be insane.
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-18-2014 , 08:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by betgo
R u serious? Is this a satellite? Payouts in these live tournaments are top heavy and we could have FE. Don't know about AQ, but folding QQ would be insane.
?? what FE? OR will be getting close to 3:1...also SB has 1/2 BB left...
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-18-2014 , 09:01 PM
V has to call 445,000 to win 875,000. i guess its just under 2:1...but I can't see him opening too wide, but the key reason to fold here is because SB has 1/2 BB and is already pot committed...can't see the Original raiser folding to our shove..
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-18-2014 , 10:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boobsicles
V has to call 445,000 to win 875,000. i guess its just under 2:1...but I can't see him opening too wide, but the key reason to fold here is because SB has 1/2 BB and is already pot committed...can't see the Original raiser folding to our shove..
Whatever, but our pushing range is nothing like aces with top heavy payouts. Maybe JJ+/AK.
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-19-2014 , 10:19 AM
Guess people is right,
i didnt see that there are 2 guys almost out... This make ur bubble factor big. Then I guess is a fold with Icm in hand. Anyway im calling with JJ+ AK
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-19-2014 , 01:04 PM
Would anyone here try to put villain on a hand before folding or is it a straight icm fold? hero's read is villain is pretty tight so a min raise may only be QQ+, maybe AK and we're huge underdogs to that range and that is why I would fold. I agree that I'd look for a better spot to shove and get it in though
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-19-2014 , 09:21 PM
You have 4th best stack at final table. You have position against the Villain, so post-flop you are in control. I like flatting here and getting a look at a flop. If he's AK or has big PP he's going to call your shove, but if he's on a pp and an ace flops, you'll be able to take it down. If he's AK he's going to call your shove and if you flop an ace you're no worse off than if you shoved pre. I'd call.
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-19-2014 , 11:17 PM
people saying fold arent trolling?
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-20-2014 , 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cicakman
people saying fold arent trolling?
No. I agree w/ the fold completely. Online, AQ w/ >15bbs I'm never folding but you really have to reconsider in a live low stakes game.
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-20-2014 , 11:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cicakman
people saying fold arent trolling?
Look at the stack sizes >_<
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-24-2014 , 04:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KevinGChapman
You have 4th best stack at final table. You have position against the Villain, so post-flop you are in control. I like flatting here and getting a look at a flop. If he's AK or has big PP he's going to call your shove, but if he's on a pp and an ace flops, you'll be able to take it down. If he's AK he's going to call your shove and if you flop an ace you're no worse off than if you shoved pre. I'd call.
You cannot flat here... It is fold or shove. Given the relative stack sizes and pay outs, it is an easy fold. There are better spots to get your chips in.
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-24-2014 , 06:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boobsicles
Look at the stack sizes >_<
I see them. Not trying to make tight $3 icm folds in a live 100.
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote
07-25-2014 , 03:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cicakman
I see them. Not trying to make tight $3 icm folds in a live 100.
That's why they say don't play stakes above your BE and below you BR because you aren't making the best EV plays.

You comment just makes me thing you have much ego for the lolsoft field. In fact you shouldn't even take marginal +EV spots if it's high variance against bad players
AQ decision 0 live MTT - Just made the money Quote

      
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