AKs, Fold on Bubble?
10-24-2008
, 08:19 PM
Full Tilt Poker $10 + $1 Matrix 4x Sit & Go No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com
BTN: t5400
SB: t2940
BB: t1260
Hero (CO): t3900
Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is CO with A
K
Hero raises to t555, BTN raises to t1965, 2 folds, Hero folds?
Villian has tightened up since blinds increased to a meaningful level. He has been limping a lot of pots and doing a poor job of putting any pressure on myself of the two short stacks. I haven't been overly active, although I have been min raising the BTN a decient amount but playing tight in the CO since the chip leader will have position if he decided to play.
Does anyone think villian ever folds here to a shove? I really doubt he does, but does anyone ever see a fold from him. I figured to be flipping alot with some 60/40's and occasionally be a dominating 70/30. I really didn't want to take a flip when I thought I could fold and continue to steal. Good or bad logic?
Looking at ICM calculations after the fact, it looks like a fold was correct if villian is always calling. Equity if I fold is .2766 and .4051 if I shove and win, so I would need 68% equity against villians range to shove. Even against two randoms AKs only has 67% equity.
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com
BTN: t5400
SB: t2940
BB: t1260
Hero (CO): t3900
Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is CO with A
KHero raises to t555, BTN raises to t1965, 2 folds, Hero folds?
Villian has tightened up since blinds increased to a meaningful level. He has been limping a lot of pots and doing a poor job of putting any pressure on myself of the two short stacks. I haven't been overly active, although I have been min raising the BTN a decient amount but playing tight in the CO since the chip leader will have position if he decided to play.
Does anyone think villian ever folds here to a shove? I really doubt he does, but does anyone ever see a fold from him. I figured to be flipping alot with some 60/40's and occasionally be a dominating 70/30. I really didn't want to take a flip when I thought I could fold and continue to steal. Good or bad logic?
Looking at ICM calculations after the fact, it looks like a fold was correct if villian is always calling. Equity if I fold is .2766 and .4051 if I shove and win, so I would need 68% equity against villians range to shove. Even against two randoms AKs only has 67% equity.
