First post...thought this might be a fun hand to look over....

Playing the daily double A & B on FTP, (drinking & poker on a friday night), it's down to the final two tables, 18 left in each when this hand comes up. Both MP2 & BTN seem extremely LAG & spewy, like you would expect at a 10 dollar tourney.

Only thing is, making both FTs is worth 5k and making winning both, more unlikely, is worth an extra 30k. Payouts in this tourney are probably negligible in relation to making both FTs and/or winning both but it looked like this for this one and probably close to the same in the other.

1) 2212, 2) 1362, 3) 943, 4) 728, 5) 553, 6) 396, 7) 291, 8) 229, 9) 178, 10-12) 140, 13-15) 109 16-18) 77

So what's our play? Do we pull an "I HAZ AK, I SHOVE!" or look for a better spot? Without the final table implications & 20 bbs I'm fist pump shoving vs. these two as their ranges are both pretty huge and its so thin. I was really wondering what some math guys could come up with....BTW I have 195k in the other double at this time. Thanks guys in advance for any opinions/help.

Full Tilt Poker Daily Double - B No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t2500/t5000 Blinds + t600 - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+2: t81622
MP1: t212767
MP2: t94269
CO: t48656
BTN: t175594
Hero (SB): t102291
BB: t64889
UTG: t47275
UTG+1: t96228

Pre Flop: (t12900) Hero is SB with K A
4 folds, MP2 raises to t18995, 1 fold, BTN raises to t42990, Hero ????????

If you can fold into the FT of both you probably should, if not I shove here.

nice post

is there anything in between double cash, double FT, and double win?

"best cash" which hes almost definitely locked up if hes made it this far

This for me

Then this is almost certainly a fold, despite how laggy villains may be

busting out now is just sooooo catastrophic it outweighs any potential chip gain imo

i guess id also fold JJ here, and push QQ, but i think qq may also be a fold if you mathd it out

The thing is, there are 18 people left which means its very unlikely you're gonna be able to fold your way to the FT given the fact that you only have 20BB's. I shove here. AKo is at the bottom of my shoving range in this situation, but I'm still gonna do it here.

yeah you cant fold your way to FT with 20BBs

I definitly shove here, the button doesent have much FE against the original raiser so I doubt he has anything that bad but AK is way ahead of both there ranges. you cant fold your way into the FT with 20BB's but winning this pot will give you a really good stack and almost lock up a spot if you play tight. If worse comes to worse and you lose you are still in btw with 10BB's so it cant be that bad

O my bad I read the CO stack as the BTN stack, I think the shove against the bigger stack is better actually because that ups the chance that hes making a move against the CO although that is still unlikely, I just like to do it because you are still ahead of his range IMO and a 200k stack will certainly lock you a spot at the FT

What is the average stack in this tourney? I see you're 3rd-4th in chips at this table, but what about overall? I don't mind limping into this FT, considering we have the other FT on lock if we stick with the plan. If things start to look bad on this table, don't be afraid to try to accumulate, though.

I was slightly below average in this tourney. Although limping into the FT would be fun, I don't know if that's +EV. Not really looking at limping into a situation at 2 FTs where I have to gamble. Some pretty logical responses though guys thanks.

Is there any way to accurately model this situation using my cEV & $EV if I shove or fold? ICM? Help?

I'd say MP1 has an opening range of top 15% & BTN has top 10%, and I'm not exagerating on ranges here based on previous play. I probably have 0 FE w/ BTN and maybe MP1 is gonna call off with like 99+, AQ+. This gives me 57% equity in a pot for about 2364777 chips assuming MP1 folds. 29% in a larger pot if MP1 does have top 4% and I'm assuming lagtard button is never folding.

Is this a case where I can model an extra value to each chip as compared to others, $5,000 * x, and $30,000 * y, x = probability of FT in both & y = probablility of winning both? Possibily including edge over crappy crappy field? I'm the next todd terry (random shoutout to high stakes mtt pro to help with ICM obv)....