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AK: standarв push or kinda spew?

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10-21-2009 , 10:10 AM

DKAction

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 277

Hi guys
Do u think it's standard or spew? How would u play?

Full Tilt Poker $9,500 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 9 players

Hero (CO): t2550 M = 56.67
BTN: t3447 M = 76.60
SB: t3000 M = 66.67
BB: t2593 M = 57.62
UTG: t2580 M = 57.33
UTG+1: t3000 M = 66.67
UTG+2: t2970 M = 66
MP1: t3000 M = 66.67
MP2: t3220 M = 71.56

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is CO with A

3 folds, MP1 raises to t120, 1 fold, Hero calls t120, 2 folds, BB raises to t360, MP1 calls t240, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to t2550 all in, BB requests TIME, BB raises to t2593 all in, 1 fold

Flop: (t5475) Q

Turn: (t5475) Q

River: (t5475) T

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10-21-2009 , 10:29 AM

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

i dont mind flatting with reads in the 1st place, readless i 3bet here 95% of the time and the other 5% i prolly missclick or play to many tables to play good

that said the spot is awkward and 4bet shoving AK looks like a 66-99 which is FOS and wants to push someone of JJ or AK (which is never going to happen online).

vs a 3betting range of 99+ AQ we have about 45% Equity here if he is not folding anything to our wired line.

dead money in the pot + the chance that his range is wider i dont mind a 4bet shove here but i think the hand is missplayed preflop and 4bet shoving this is supoptimal.

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10-21-2009 , 10:38 AM

ssnyc

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 38,129

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10-21-2009 , 10:42 AM

ixmike88

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,245

this is -ev if bb is 99 ak (assuming mp1 folds, but he seems weak enough to presume so most times) and +150 chips if he has aq in his range (which i doubt), so most likely this is a fold

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10-21-2009 , 10:45 AM

CaliStyle

See my staking thread

Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 4,356

Three bet pre, in this spot I think you might find yourself in trouble a lot with a 4 bet shove, your M is still very high and this is way too much of a gamble at this point. The way it was played I think I would call the 2nd raise and see a flop.

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10-21-2009 , 11:07 AM

dereds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 16,782

Quote:

Originally Posted by ixmike88

this is -ev if bb is 99 ak (assuming mp1 folds, but he seems weak enough to presume so most times) and +150 chips if he has aq in his range (which i doubt), so most likely this is a fold

My first reaction when I saw the hand posted was NH, but you are correct. That said it may be still profitable to backshove here if there is a part of the villains range he is 3bet folding and if his range is any wider. Like it's questionable as to whether villain is 3betting worse with these stacks but I wouldn't rule out some combos of AQ and indeed KQ given it is a HJ open and a CO flat.

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10-21-2009 , 03:35 PM

ixmike88

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,245

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Originally Posted by dereds

My first reaction when I saw the hand posted was NH

who's isn't? how many people give ak a second thought?

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Originally Posted by dereds

That said it may be still profitable to backshove here if there is a part of the villains range he is 3bet folding and if his range is any wider. Like it's questionable as to whether villain is 3betting worse with these stacks but I wouldn't rule out some combos of AQ and indeed KQ given it is a HJ open and a CO flat.

i never thought about him 3bet/folding, which could make this more profitable, it's really nice to have hud stats here to see if he's 40% or something in which case he'd be most likely giving more value to lower broadways that we crush (imo), but readless i think it's pretty breakevenish and simply a spot that can be avoided since it is still pretty early

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10-21-2009 , 03:47 PM

dereds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 16,782

Yeah stack depths and the 4x open make this more marginal than I originally thought. Like I think people are less likely to squeeze a 4x and with stacks this is more likely to be a value raise than anything else.

That said when it's this close we don't need the 3bettor to fold often or be tooling with worse very often for it to be profitable

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10-21-2009 , 04:48 PM

LetsSeeThree

adept

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 967

Call, and see what transpires. Since it's going to be multiway and you're in position, you will find out very quickly where you stand. In this specific case the BB probably won't lead into 2 players OTF with anything you can beat, and the mp1 certainly wont, so you get away from this cheap. Also considering MP1's play here, one of you're outs versus a pair is likely dead.

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