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AK good fold or JAM

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12-12-2012 , 08:31 PM

eliguazo

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 229

Hi this hand i play just recently have something, i dont know if i should jam it, the first villain is new to the table and really he doesnt worry me, but the second one is a good player that plays abc poker with some 3 bets but never fancy 4 bets o strange moves.

My thinking here is that doesnt worth going all in with AK agains this player because he 4bet is ultra strong i put him in AA, KK and the bottom range AK and QQ, at the best i flip or freerroll so in this particular situation what do you think'??? still is better to jam?

Poker Stars, $5 Buy-in (400/800 blinds, 100 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #14983091

SB: 5,646 (7.1 bb)
BB: 11,860 (14.8 bb)
UTG+1: 7,135 (8.9 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): 53,728 (67.2 bb)
MP1: 13,362 (16.7 bb)
MP2: 26,020 (32.5 bb)
MP3: 32,059 (40.1 bb)
CO: 32,086 (40.1 bb)
BTN: 48,787 (61 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A

UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to 2,000, MP1 raises to 4,000, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to 6,000, 5 folds, MP1 raises to 13,262 and is all-in, MP3 calls 7,262

Flop: (30,624) 7

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (30,624) 7

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (30,624) A

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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12-12-2012 , 08:33 PM

tboneparte

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 3,378

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12-12-2012 , 09:35 PM

MountainBum

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 2,154

a "good player" that min 4 bets does not compute. Your not that deep I cram here...he should be iso;ing the the lower part of that range and proper 4 betting the upper part, i would expect to see some "fancy" hands here.

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12-12-2012 , 09:37 PM

MountainBum

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 2,154

And I just checked results after my post not sure why you would even post results but idk...You have AK and 40bbs in a $5 tournament without good reads get it in.

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12-12-2012 , 11:27 PM

eliguazo

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 229

mountain bum He is playing solid poker dont doing anything crazy and with the history i have with him i see that is very unlikely he 4 bet to iso because he only do this kind of plays for value, thats why i fold.

my question is matematically is better to get it in 40 bb even if you know that your can be at best flipping because he never would do that with AQ or less or weak or midle pairs

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12-12-2012 , 11:33 PM

MountainBum

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 2,154

well if your question is just math than just stove it....and how can you be 100% sure he is never doing it with less than QQ?

Last edited by MountainBum; 12-12-2012 at 11:35 PM. Reason: Edit: if the the A didn't hit the river do you post this hand?

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12-13-2012 , 12:11 AM

roNAA

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 428

If your read of mp3 is that of a solid abc player, this is a fold. You have been 3b then 4b by 2 villians when you opened in early position... one of them is solid abc, the other readless. They are showing emmense strength here and are of showing up with JJ+,AK. You are flipping or dominated vs this range thus it is a fold. 5bing AK here this deep without loose reads is bad.

Dont take big gambles in marginal situations, fold and move on to the next hand with your 65bb stack.

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12-13-2012 , 03:16 AM

bs_jayhawk

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,645

If he really is a good player, it's most likely a misclick. A good player would never intentionally bet that amount other than to throw other regs off.

There's no way I'm folding this anyway. I can't really tell what happened but i hope you made sure to stack them all.

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12-13-2012 , 05:15 AM

V-Delaney

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 3,835

The river was an ace and you would have won, we get it.

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12-13-2012 , 06:41 AM

#10

Finnera

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,621

yeah, MP3 is terribad with that sizing if its not a misclick. if MP1 wouldve folded, then id call and take it easy post even when hittin K or A. now, id say its more of a fold, if 4bettor has somewhat normal stats.

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12-13-2012 , 01:53 PM

#11

eliguazo

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 229

yeah im 100 % sure thats he hes not doing that 4 bet with less thant QQ because i been playing with him almost from the beggining of that mtt and the style of play of him define very solid that 4 bet.

what do you think about calling and play nitty postflop???? this hand has some controversy, i can see that theres solid reasons for every move.

question, how much BB is too much to push with AK???? i i have 45 bb or less is an insta jam but im not sure

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12-13-2012 , 03:34 PM

#12

MountainBum

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 2,154

Effective stack sizes tho......

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12-13-2012 , 04:04 PM

#13

tboneparte

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 3,378

mp1 3b with 16.7bb and mp3 4b in spite of this (and positions). I think its clear we're up against at least JJ and possibly AK, sometimes AQ but I guess 87s sometimes too. The fact that its likely to be a 3 way all in and when we're up agianst say JJ and AQ/AK we lose outs and draw to a split pot a decent amount. We could be up against JJ and QQ but even still we're flipping being a slight dog. Don't know how we could expect something like 87s though, think it happens an almost negligible amount of the time. So to me it looks like a break even call at best, not really worth it for a risk of 40bb.

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12-14-2012 , 03:05 AM

#14

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

yea good fold. wp.

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