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Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Is this AJo a fold on the bubble?
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03-29-2011 , 11:40 AM
#1
pokercj95
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enthusiast
Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 62
Villain will shove ATC here. I hold AJo from BB. Should I just muck it?


Full Tilt Poker $20 + $0.90 Sit&Go (Sup Turbo) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 3 players - View hand 1255245
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): t270 6.75 BBs
BTN: t1320 33 BBs
SB: t210 5.25 BBs

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is BB with A J
BTN raises to t1320 all in, 1 fold, Hero calls t230 all in

Flop: (t560) K 9 6 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: (t560) 2 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t560) K (2 players - 2 are all in)
Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
03-29-2011 , 12:09 PM
#2
Twigee
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centurion
Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 132
It's really close, I'm too lazy to look up the 6 man payout structure so if it's

.65/.35 you need 64%
.6/.4 you need 66%

Ajo is 63% against a random. I personally think you can make a bigger mistake than calling here. It's only another couple hands before your crippled and your not in a commanding position for 2nd, I don't play 6's but on the surface I think this is a grumpy call but not necessarily a bad fold either.
Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
03-29-2011 , 12:56 PM
#3
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penfold
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With edge set to zero Wiz bizarrely says ATs but not AJo. I would probably call if I was 100% sure button shoves 32o otherwise I'd fold.
Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
03-29-2011 , 09:29 PM
#4
pokercj95
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Thanks for your reply.

I can 100% sure Btn shoves ATC, but can not guarantee he is shoving 23o.

Quote:
Originally Posted by penfold
With edge set to zero Wiz bizarrely says ATs but not AJo. I would probably call if I was 100% sure button shoves 32o otherwise I'd fold.
Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
03-29-2011 , 09:33 PM
#5
pokercj95
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Thanks.

It is .65/.35

I guess you are right, I force to gamble there, I am not in comfortable shoes for 2nd yet. If I need to gamble later on with no chancing of being 1st and worst hand, I should gamble here with a favorable situation, although I do not like it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Twigee
It's really close, I'm too lazy to look up the 6 man payout structure so if it's

.65/.35 you need 64%
.6/.4 you need 66%

Ajo is 63% against a random. I personally think you can make a bigger mistake than calling here. It's only another couple hands before your crippled and your not in a commanding position for 2nd, I don't play 6's but on the surface I think this is a grumpy call but not necessarily a bad fold either.
Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
03-30-2011 , 07:42 AM
#6
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it's a fold.. no matter if he shoves 23 or not
Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
03-30-2011 , 07:58 AM
#7
GunshotTwos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotshot_23
it's a fold.. no matter if he shoves 23 or not
Wow, my initial reaction is call, now I'm not so sure...

Hotshot, would you mind sharing the math behind this decision so we can all understand it? Also, isn't there a p/f matrix/table/chart or whatever available out there?!

Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
03-30-2011 , 08:06 AM
#8
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OMGClayDol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokercj95
Thanks for your reply.

I can 100% sure Btn shoves ATC, but can not guarantee he is shoving 23o.
dude ATC = any two cards
are you saying 2 and 3 aren't two cards?
Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
03-30-2011 , 08:28 AM
#9
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sry.. SNGWIZ says its a fold.. no matter if he is pushing 90% or 100% of hands..
Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
03-30-2011 , 02:18 PM
#10
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Yeah fold even if he is pushing 100%, which we cant be sure he is. It is fairly close to call against a 100% push though, but even if we call and win we still wont be able to accomplish anything with our 2nd biggest stack, we will still have to fold to his pushes.
Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
03-30-2011 , 03:14 PM
#11
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OMGClayDol
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closeish to break even if he is atc, still a really close fold with AQ (all assuming no edge)...
range becomes 99/AQ if SB has same stack as you. keep in mind if for example the big stack is shoving ATC every hand whenever he gets the chance you have to take the least "-ev" spot, such as this.
Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
03-30-2011 , 03:41 PM
#12
NightTrain87
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centurion
Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 124
77 AQ ATs looks good to me
Is this AJo a fold on the bubble? Quote
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