Villain is a decent reg. Should I be attempting this play this early? If not, then I almost never have any bluffs in my range here. Would he bet so large on river with A10? Would he fold a hand like A3, A4, or even AJ without a club? Or am I overthinking because it's doubtful he turns a hand like 1010 into a bluff?

Yatahay Network - 30/60 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 81.52 BB
BB: 79.85 BB
UTG: 84.57 BB
UTG+1: 87.57 BB
MP: 80.57 BB
MP+1: 74.43 BB
CO: 92.03 BB
BTN: 88.83 BB

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.43 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, MP+1 calls 6 BB

Flop: (17.93 BB, 2 players) K J 3
Hero checks, MP+1 checks

Turn: (17.93 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero bets 4.48 BB, MP+1 calls 4.48 BB

River: (26.9 BB, 2 players) A
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 20.18 BB, Hero raises to 68.92 BB and is all-in

What are you trying to rep after your 4x 3! pre followed by checking the flop and then betting 1/4 pot on the turn to then x/r the river vs V's almost pot sized bet?

Would you play a flush or straight like that -- QT seems a stretch for your sb pfr, why would AcXc (or any flush draw for that matter) check that flop after pf aggression and then bet so small on turn only to check river?

In short, it's hard to credit this line with a big hand, regardless if we are early or later in the tournament.

Well it's because the fields are so soft this early that I was wondering if it's worth it to make a high variance play here. Considering how deep we are, I expect him to raise the turn most of the time with a flush vs such a small bet. And I would definitely 3b pre with Q10s here at least some of the time. And he could value bet such a wide range here, most 2 pairs and maybe 33, definitely 44. And I block the very top of his range of higher flushes and straights. But really, what single better hand to turn my hand into a bluff here? That's what made me go with it.

But you also said:

But no, even if V were a random, I don't think your line makes much sense. With weak fields, usually the better approach is to get more value from your monsters than you'd normally get instead of firing off random bluffs -- especially since weak fields contain a disproportionate number of stations.

You do block AsQs and QsJs, but he still has AsTs, AsJs, JsTs and all the random AsXs, or suited connected spades. As for raising on the turn w/ a flush, not sure V wants to do that after the weakness you were showing post flop -- unless his flush needed protection (i.e., low/medium suited connectors). And you are right, he could value bet pretty wide on the river (though size doesn't seem right for a thin value bet), but he's probably going to call with that value if he evaluates your line -- don't see how he ever mucks a set or better here, and a good V probably calls with two pair (and maybe even an A) if he evaluates your line.

We have a 1-2x street hand here imo in 3b pot vs reg once we get that flop.

I like it up until the turn.. but I might check again and see if he wants to bite, this seems like a great candidate for protecting our double checking range as 3bettor. Betting is fine too I but if we do go bigger, not sure what your trying to achieve w the smaller bet.

AP river, vs reg I might make a crying fold because he has enough Ax in his 3b def range to make it unprofitable for us to call. Calling would be a close 2nd, raising would be last imo

Interested to hear PIO warriors thoughts tho

I would check/call the turn instead of betting. If it checks trough then you can bet the river for value but not when the river is A when you have to check again.

x/jam the river and turning your hand into a bluff? I do not like it really. Yeah, you are blocking the straight and the flush but your line does not seem particularly strong to me. Also, you still have some showdown value but probably not a lot. I think I lean more towards x/fold. Villain probably has K or A. Quite risky to try to bluff him off his hand.

I bet small turn for quite a few reasons. Among them, I get all worse hands to call, including any jack, any 4, any 3, any pocket pair, any hand with a club, even sometimes a hand like A10 or A5 without a club. I'm trying to extract maximum value. Whereas if I bet bigger, even half pot, most of those hands just fold. And I can still rep KK, JJ, AK with the ace of clubs, AA with ace of clubs, KJ, Q10 or a made flush myself. I'm not sure why some of you guys are basically discounting me having a big hand here after my turn bet on this board. When the ace actually hits and I check, it seems like I'm giving up in a sense so a good reg here would and probably should turn most of his hands here into a bluff, and should value bet relatively light. Also people just don't c/r shove bluff river here in mid-stakes and because of that, it's an exploitative play that I actually think would work the vast majority of the time. I can say I've made similar plays and the vast majority of the time they fold, except for maybe the 15% of their range that gets to this river with a flush or a straight with a club blocker. I don't believe I've ever seen anyone call with even 2 pair in this spot. Mostly because, if you're calling a weak 2 pair here, you're just gonna be calling way too many hands. What hands are you actually folding then after betting for value except for literally a few hands like A10 or A5? However, I almost always reserve these types of plays for deep ITM. People just fold too much in those spots. I do wonder what PIO says to do here.

Not sure why you're insisting you could be repping these hands well enough by the river as played. AcJx / ATcc are the only reasonably plausible non-bluff combos I see in your range here.

If you're going to incorporate more bluffs into your range to avoid exploitation it should be with coherent post-flop action. this river is such a weird / random spot that i don't think you need to try to balance.

Good job representing absolutely nothing. What are you trying to fold AQ? Terrible bluff - villain either has AJ, a flush, or you have the best hand.

Guess you could rep AcJc, QcJc, JcTc, and some QTs

If you were going to decline a cbet it'd prob be with either air or a combo like QQ, TT, Jx that has the characteristics of having lots of SDV but also suboptimally/exploitably misjudges how much Kx you're losing to that's in IPs range (not as much as you think) and how much worse that'll continue that's in IPs range (more than you think).

By the river this doesn't leave much room to bluff and QJo with a club would be a much better choice. There's no reason for IP player to float much JJ once you so severely cap yourself OTF so he can catch with lots of JJ, AJ, JcTc.

But you don't really need any bluffs here because most players will not ship all their flushes and its reasonable to assume he bluffs for this sizing too. Really it's reasonable to think he's gonna be much more polar than he ought to be and your range by virtue of decline cbet is already pretty chock full of made combos--him being too polar and you having suboptimally/exploitably many made combos is precisely why you really don't need any bluffs: most of your range can already beat his bluffs and he is not folding enough of his value range because it's much stronger than it ought to be by virtue of shifting too many flushes into this sizing.

The way you should approach river is you should ship your flushes and when you have a potential catcher like QQ make a quick determination whether or not he can stab a weak pair like 55-88 or air like 65s, 76s and decide whether or not to catch accordingly. You certainly have the winner here sometimes--in some universes you have the winner here a lot.

I don't like it.

True, very rarely do players bluff c/r on the river.

But this is a very polarizing bet.

If you have a nut flush, why would you check the flop and make a blocking bet on the turn?

It is unlikely you would 3 bet pre with QTs but even if you did why wouldn't you bet the flop?

You just don't have a set. No flop bet. Small turn bet. If you had AA you would bet the flop and would just call the river because everything got there.

If villain is a decent reg he should know getting > 2:1 on a polarizing bet he has to call with most any hand that isn't a bluff that bet 70% pot on the river.

I like the flop and turn play because you give yourself the best chance of getting to the river cheap. But now on the river decide whether to bluff catch or not. I personally think I would fold.