This is just after a few hands in Sunday Storm, a big tournament on Pokerstars that usually attracts something between 8 and 12 K players. In hindsight this fold feels absurd in many ways. I might have looked a bit too much on the absolute number of BB:s, forgetting 49 BB was just a bit more than 1/4 of my stack.

To make the fold I basically have to give him credit for a set or perhaps A5s that made a semibluff with a gutshot and got lucky on the turn. This deep it seems quite likely many villains will call even on MP1 with 22/44 for setmine, and definately with TT. But would they play like this with AT or JJ? Possible, right? Not many busted draws seems likely either, especially since I have the Ace of clubs

One question I asked myself is if I underrepped my hand, something that might mandate a river call. But on the other hand the most common $11-player will tread carefully in a spot like this and check the river (or bet smaller) if they weren't quite sure they had the best hand.

By the time I played the hand I only had a handful of hands of villain, so no reads. Information gained later:



PokerStars - 25/50 Ante 6 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 198.14 BB (VPIP: 25.23, PFR: 15.03, 3Bet Preflop: 8.97, Hands: 333)
BTN: 198.26 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: 198.88 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
BB: 158.46 BB (VPIP: 21.31, PFR: 8.20, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 61)
Hero (UTG): 195.38 BB
UTG+1: 233.42 BB (VPIP: 15.28, PFR: 11.29, 3Bet Preflop: 13.64, Hands: 72)
MP: 221.12 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 52)
MP+1: 192.82 BB (VPIP: 18.33, PFR: 10.17, 3Bet Preflop: 5.68, Hands: 180)

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.46 BB) Hero has A A

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (8.96 BB, 3 players) T 4 2
BB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, MP+1 raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 6 BB

Turn: (26.96 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 13.48 BB, Hero calls 13.48 BB

River: (53.92 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 49 BB, fold

MP+1 wins 53.92 BB

In a PKO I am hitting the gas on this flop. You have AA and two people you cover in the pot, but you're very deep. I'm betting very large on this flop, probably overbetting. I'm trying to get people all-in by the river.

I don't know why you chose the flop size you chose.

I feel your pain, as I also play these stakes on Stars. I don't believe there are any draws that made it on the turn - he either flopped a set, or is spewing. I suppose its not impossible he called with JJ pre and then went crazy on the ten high flop,

As you know, the vast majority of times its a set when they get aggro like this. I feel a lot of players in these tourneys have all value and no draws when they raise on this flop . Now and then you come across someone that just randomly spews, which makes it difficult to lay down the pocket rockets.

In these games it may well be right to fold, maybe even on the turn, but its very difficult to do. I'd probably have been too weak and called and done the rebuy, if that is an option.

It is possible you made a terrific decision on the river. Typically when there are very few draws on a rainbow flop I let it go when I opened UTG and get c/r'd. Though I sometimes do it on the turn bet when the sizing is a large % of the pot. There are times when the turn bet is around 20% where it is clear they aren't sure if we have an over pair and want to keep the pot smallish.

I like your flop sizing where there is only one Broadway card (T) and very few draws. It doesn't hit UTG's range and it does hit BB's range a bit. MP can have more 22 & 44 than UTG. Your sizing makes it worth it for people with a pair to call and see what happens.

The turn call is reasonable because the bet was only 50% pot. It looks like a value bet and is not polarized. I sometimes fold here but given the bet sizing is less than 10% of our stack I probably call here.

The river bet is polarized as it is roughly pot size. So it could be a bluff in theory. But this is not a spot where there are a lot of bluffs. 65s/A5s got there on the turn and A3s/53s got there on the river... There are basically no other bluffs, other than air, left. I just doubt there are many A4s/A2s bluffs on this flop with a BDFD. That is more of a call to see if it is worth proceeding on the turn. If we bet the turn and they didn't hit their suit, its an easy fold.

I like the river fold because I doubt JJ/Tx play it this way. On the river they would check it back some. Or bet a smaller more blocking bet size (wanting a call from a PP < TT and not wanting to lose a lot to JJ+ which we have a lot of because we called the turn bet).

The funny thing is that I think I call too much on the river in spots like these. Recently at the Venetian in an $1,100 multiday event on Day 1C, I had AA in the BB and I 3 bet an EP raise preflop. The flop was T62 with a flush draw and I bet smallish like you did and he called. The turn was less than a T so I bet again and he called. The river was < T again and there was no flush and unlikely a straight so I bet a reasonable size and he jammed for a little bit more than my bet size and I called. He had TT. I called on the river because it was only like 25% of my stack. But I am trying to teach myself to fold in these spots because I think its an underbluff spot. Like the one in this thread.

I think you need to call here.

We just beat value when Villain has JJ/Tx. They 'put you on AK' and bet accordingly.

There are some creative bluffs floating around, hands like QJ/J9 of diamonds might take this line.

Sure he has some sets, but then some sets also slow play this dry flop. Would you just auto raise TT here? I usually would not; even the smaller sets will get slow played some. They 'never' call here with JJ however. They were waiting to see a safe flop, and got one. Now they pile the money in.

If you are folding here, you are only calling with TT?