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AA - any reason NOT to shove river AA - any reason NOT to shove river

09-28-2010 , 03:49 AM
Villain is 27/27/80ish.

Poker Stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t50 - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: t24285 M = 26.98
MP: t22580 M = 25.09
CO: t23340 M = 25.93
Hero (BTN): t22073 M = 24.53
SB: t29076 M = 32.31
BB: t7450 M = 8.28

Pre Flop: (t900) Hero is BTN with A A
3 folds, Hero raises to t900, SB calls t700, 1 fold

Flop: (t2500) 2 7 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t600, SB raises to t2400, Hero calls t1800

Turn: (t7300) T (2 players)
SB bets t4800, Hero calls t4800

River: (t16900) 8 (2 players)
SB bets t5200, Hero raises to t13923 all in, SB folds
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote
09-28-2010 , 05:18 AM
That is one mega strong line by villain but he could quite easily have slowplayed QQ or KK here and he can't have too many 7x in his range. We are 39% vs QQ+, A7s, A7os, K7s, 87s, 76s, 22, 88, TT. Shove is correct and good imo.
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote
09-28-2010 , 05:29 AM
after his weak river bet its clear shove imo,calling dosent make sense on river...
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote
09-28-2010 , 06:14 AM
I like the line you took here with AA.
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote
09-28-2010 , 06:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EPortJake
That is one mega strong line by villain but he could quite easily have slowplayed QQ or KK here and he can't have too many 7x in his range. We are 39% vs QQ+, A7s, A7os, K7s, 87s, 76s, 22, 88, TT. Shove is correct and good imo.
LOL

more on flop, call the c/r
raise turn unless you think he is capable of triple barrel
shove river
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote
09-28-2010 , 07:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hackdeath
LOL
Care to elaborate?
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote
09-28-2010 , 07:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EPortJake
That is one mega strong line by villain but he could quite easily have slowplayed QQ or KK here and he can't have too many 7x in his range. We are 39% vs QQ+, A7s, A7os, K7s, 87s, 76s, 22, 88, TT. Shove is correct and good imo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EPortJake
Care to elaborate?
Most of the range you have given is 7x.

The range you give has us making a -EV value shove, and then you proceed to say that shove is correct. Basically a post full of contradiction.
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote
09-28-2010 , 07:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hackdeath
Most of the range you have given is 7x.

The range you give has us making a -EV value shove, and then you proceed to say that shove is correct. Basically a post full of contradiction.
The range I have given is his calling range to our shove. If we shove and he calls with this range we are putting in 31% pot equity by my calcs and have 39% hand equity. +Ev?
Now maybe I am being too nitty but I'm amazed villain folded here. The number of players at 2$ who could take this line must be very few.
The 7x quote was a bit of a brainfart admitted as about half of the range I gave is 7x.
I do agree the flop lead could be slightly bigger.

Last edited by EPortJake; 09-28-2010 at 08:13 AM.
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote
09-28-2010 , 08:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EPortJake
The range I have given is his calling range to our shove. If we shove and he calls with this range we are putting in 31% pot equity by my calcs and have 39% hand equity. +Ev?
No, that's if you call. Think of calling vs raising, the difference is the extra 8.7k you bet which according to your range you have 39% equity vs him. So you're putting in an extra 9k as a dog, hence calling is better than raising with YOUR range.
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote
09-28-2010 , 09:08 AM
I was assuming villain is always calling our shove and he is doing so with the range I quoted so:
13923/(13923+16900+13923) = 0.31 with 0.39 hand equity.
I see what you mean though. Assuming he is hardly ever or never bluffing and I put him on the range I did it would be more +cEv to call than shove. I suppose this also shows how important it is to accurately put your villain on a range (and villains always have some bluff %). I have tended to err on the side of caution and here it would say calling would be best, which I know is wrong. Thanks dude. I have learnt something useful today. Please point out any other mistakes.
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote
09-28-2010 , 10:21 AM
1400 OTF and go from there

as played river really is not thin at all, sucks if he has 88. TT def 3bets preflop imo.
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote
09-28-2010 , 11:00 AM
Not sure why you assume he always has the goods here. Flop bet is meant to induce spew from bluffs. Table dynamic is that I've been opening a lot; hence, kept my preflop raise the same for balance.

I think my thought process at the time is that villain should be 3betting 88+ preflop virtually always, given how often I had been opening pre. He might even 3bet some smaller pp's. Thus, his range flatting pre is actually much wider. All kinds of suited connectors, overs, etc. If instead his flatting range were narrower and my image tighter, a small flop 3bet would be much more enticing as it would look more bluffy/FOS. (And it also prevents villain from shutting down on ugly turn/rivers; e.g. villain c/raises, turn: A, villain checks and we lose action from 99.) As is, I think the higher propensity for air in this spot for villain makes betting small and inducing much more +EV. I also don't think villain would raise so much with a 7, as he must think my hand is pretty weak to bet 1/4 PSB on the flop.
AA - any reason NOT to shove river Quote

      
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