$78 6m, 2 stackoffs at high blinds wiz doesnt like at all - MTT Poker Strategy

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$78 6m, 2 stackoffs at high blinds wiz doesnt like at all

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04-26-2011 , 10:35 PM

monkeyheaven

adept

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 733

[hand_history]Poker Stars, $72 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #9167592

BB: 3,882 (9.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): 2,352 (5.9 bb)
SB: 2,766 (6.9 bb)

Preflop: (75) Hero is BTN with 9

Hero raises to 2,327 and is all-in
hand_history]

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[hand_history]Poker Stars, $72 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #9167602

SB: 3,457 (8.6 bb)
Hero (BB): 3,002 (7.5 bb)
BTN: 2,541 (6.4 bb)

Preflop: (75) Hero is BB with 4

BTN folds, SB raises to 3,432 and is all-in

hand_history]

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Both villains seemed solid, at high blinds big stack had been bullying but not to excess and had folded his sb to me on a couple of occasions. Other stack had called shoves light a couple of times. These hands were back to back.

Hand 1. Wiz hates this shove under all circumstances, seemed ok to me at the time. What range would you shove here?

Hand 2. According to wiz I can only call here if villain is shoving atc, I think hes shoving wide obv, but definitely not atc. I snapcalled here.

Im not used to being 3 handed at 200/400 blinds, but if Im folding these hands surely I'm just blinding away, did I make a big mistake here?

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04-26-2011 , 10:59 PM

WillyBeemen

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 500

You play 78s now?

Dont have wiz here so cant check my estimates, but I would fold both spots with your reads. I can shove hand 1 if the stacks were a bit closer in size. Rough range in hand 1 might be 9Ts+ 22+.

I call hand 2 only vs regs I KNOW is on the aggro side. Most times I fold since we still have a great stack, which can be put to good use with the bigger stack in bb on our btns.

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04-26-2011 , 11:09 PM

IEatsFish

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 214

I'm happy to shove the first one, Wiz can't account for future concerns, like blinding out next hand, or the change in stack dynamic if we make a successful shove. Add to that we have a SC which is usually going to mean we have live cards a lot of the time vs their calling ranges, so i'm fine with shoving.

THe second one to me is a clear fold. We're almost always just flipping here, so it's throwing away a ton of equity. Espeically so in 6max games, where bubbling is far worse than 9 mans. I wouldn't call here even if i knew villian was ATC. i'd much rahter have something like K8s than pocket 4's in those spots.

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04-26-2011 , 11:34 PM

crunny

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 610

Can you post the wiz results? I don't have it but here are my manual calcs (for simplicity, we only ever get called by one villain):

Blinds + ante = $675

Therefore if they fold we win $675

If called we win the hand 38.5% and win $1156 [(2327+675) * 0.385]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.606% 38.11% 00.49% 991931804 12862384.00 { 97s }
Hand 1: 61.394% 60.90% 00.49% 1585045508 12862384.00 { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }

If called we lose the hand 61.5% and lose $1431 [0.6 * 2327]

Therefore EV of getting called = -$275

675/275=2.45

100/3.45 = 29%

They need to fold 29% or more for shoving to be OK.

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