Its new table, just 3rd hand so no reads.

Thoughts?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 120/240 Blinds 25 Ante (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t1945)
Hero (MP2) (t5598)
MP3 (t23960)
CO (t6375)
Button (t5215)
SB (t4510)
BB (t10290)
UTG (t2950)
UTG+1 (t5980)

Hero's M: 9.57

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9, 9
2 folds, MP1 bets t1920 (All-In), Hero ?

Easy ship

agreed

Fold.

must be joke. easiest jam

fold

Not sure why the fold group are advocating that since it seems like the easiest iso ever. We are almost always ahead of the AI players range and I can even see our ship getting called by worse sometimes from the blinds.

Very easy shove

Shoving 10/10.

eaz shovation

Its a shove.

i couldnt fold

23bb, I think you have to ship

Jesus, autoshipping here just because it's 99 is sooooo this-must-be-standard mediocre. 99 in early position 9-handed is hardly the ****ing nuts, and I don't even know why OP mentioned that there's no history if people are just going to ignore it. Plus we're iso-shoving in MP2 against MP1 with the goal of getting heads up ... for a whopping 8bb. There's no dead money in the pot. And there are still 5 people left in the hand who can snap us off - we will NEVER be called with worse except AK/maybe AQ.

We-have-to-ship-because-we-have-23-bb is pretty weak. This is not our chance to double up. This is someone else's.

Its not that its 99, or we have 23BB its that its so massively +EV

wheres the ev then?

I dont understand your point.

Imo you will win a lot more chips than you lose, by making this shove over an infinite sample. There is your EV.

Seems like a simple math problem, put in a reasonable shoving range with an overcalling range of like 99+,AQs+

At a glance I'm shoving this in half a second

you said, Its not that its 99, or we have 23BB its that its so massively +EV. im asking if it isnt these two things then what makes this so ev? is there something im missing?

They are factors of making it +EV yes ofc, along with others, sorry I misunderstood you.

In these kind of spots I just always think "well it would have been profitable to open shove if folded to us and somebody has already put their stack in with a range we're way ahead of, therefore I shove"

I dunno maybe those two things don't actually add together like that but it seems like they should...

I thought we were OTB when I first read this. Its a lot closer than I thought with my first reply.

Saying "I'm way ahead if his range" is pretty funny, because you're really just saying, "I'm way ahead of MY range". You have no stats and no history, as OP said (why are we discounting that?). MP1 (any consideration for position, btw?) could have nittily blinded down to 8bb or he could have gotten coolered out of a 10k pot three hands earlier. Who knows. And even assuming MP1's not a nit, there are 160 combinations of hands in his shipping range that we're flipping against, to say nothing of crushing.

Even if we're not that concerned about being ahead of MP1, I'm more worried about the five guys behind us. It's not like we're bladed - it's 9 9 in MP2 at a nine-handed table. Best result, we iso shove, win, and pick up a 9BB. Worst, we're snapped off by a calling range that destroys us. Like I said, this is not our double up hand. It's our 23bb--->34bb, 23--->14bb, or 23--->0bb hand.

Automatic? I don't think so. And you'd be hard-pressed to convince me it's that +EV.

We crush a standard shoving range in this spot.

I'm too lazy to do math, but again, simple math problem, put in overcalling ranges of 99+,AQs+ for the guys behind and figure out how profitable it is to shove based on various ranges for the shover

would be close with 22-55 tho