PokerStars - $6.37+$0.63|60/120 Ante 15 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 1,524 (VPIP: 27.12, PFR: 3.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 61)
CO: 2,271 (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 18.64, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 61)
BTN: 2,816 (VPIP: 26.19, PFR: 10.98, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 85)
Hero (SB): 3,991
BB: 1,335 (VPIP: 12.20, PFR: 9.95, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 209)
UTG: 1,563 (VPIP: 22.95, PFR: 9.84, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 61)

6 players post ante of 15, Hero posts SB 60, BB posts BB 120

Pre Flop: (pot: 270) Hero has 9 9

fold, fold, CO raises to 360, fold, [color=red]Hero

so this guy had been making 2x raises and 3x raises from all stack sizes.

i am chip leader, whats the best line here?
i am not sure what his 3x meas and he has been doing it more than 2xing.
hes a new player to me and didnt have any stats on his steal % really.

call and play poker > 3bet to 720 fold > fold vs the raise

calls not so bad cause flops we c/r we will get a 1/3rd of his stack when are ahead. sometimes the bb squeezes and we get a heads up pot versus him with probably the best hand. 3b/f is certainly profitable as this guy will fold ~50%, but it is high risk and seems like a waste with this hand since we have to fold to a 4bet.

Shove.

Regret, u stoned or sth?
Easy jam, flatting is pretty bad cause jamming should fold out lots of broadways that we don't wanna see a flop against and hoping that a nit bb squeezes light with very few fold equity is kinda strange and 3b/f is beyond terrible. And why in the world would u check/jam flops with a hand that is pretty much always way behind when called and folds out everything worse on nearly all flops? It's like the worst hand imaginable for that.

Jamming is terribad as when you are called you are way deader and this guy is alternating 3x and 2x, so you can be quite sure you will get called more often when he is 3xing. And when shoving works you get a consolation 360. Shoving is basically hoping a $3 drooler correctly folds AQ/AK. So no, I just like money tbh. jmo, you wanna hit this?

Expecting jamming to be around +1.00 (might be good bit off, I've zero idea of pop tendencies in 7$ turbos), 3b/c might be bigger or not, really depends on history with CO. E.g. If he was some reg who perceives you having a wide 3b range in that spot, and guy adapts by 4b all pairs etc. (note: other ratios due to 2x range instead of mix of 2x/3x!), also it balances your 3b/f range enabling u to 3b wider. I think this scenario can be excluded after 61 hands in a 7$ SnG tho.
That's why expecting jamming to be > 3b/c.
3b/f really is the nut worst thing to do against reasonable set of ranges.
It will be hard to make flatting a better play w/o having good reads on giant postflop leaks he has (which we can exclude after 61 hands) and 99 is close to the worst hand to c/r most flops for rather obv reasons. But u might wanna run this in Flopzilla or sth. to get an idea/feeling for why that is if u don't see it

Pretty strong assumption, can well be other way round, there is not much info given on that. This thing here even makes me think the opposite is more likely:


Quite a cool amount of chippies if u ask me

Nah, he doesn't need to do this for an opening range somewhere in the ballpark of reasonable. Also it would be lolbad for him to fold AK in that spot vs any reasonable ranges.

That's the whole point, on average you can assume his 3x range is much tighter (read value) and shoving is wholesale blowing money up. Whatever you want to think of it, once you make this assumption, b/f (and even lolfolding) is wayyyyyyyyy better than shoving or 3b/c.

You don't have to have good reads or postflop master to play this hand on the flop. You just need to read a flop versus a very finite number of hand combinations and pray he doesn't have a larger pair.

The whole point is shoving sucks so bad (imo) that I didn't even consider it in my reply. THAT BAD LOL. Fold fold fold all day before you shove over this.

call and play poker > 3bet to 720 fold > fold vs the raise >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 'blaze up your stack shoving'

No worries.

+1

And I'm not saying he never has KJs here, just you can discount it very heavily imo, so I think a 3bet gets looked up ~50% vers a range that we are crushed.

Leakssuck nailed it. If we put him on a super nutted range we can find a fold but that isnt the case here given reads. Flatting and 3b folding are pure spew, esp with a hand with little to no blocker value and that doesnt flop well OOP.

I want to talk more about why we shouldn't shove, because I would have shoved