Poker Stars, $57.54 Buy-in (75/150 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players

Hero (BTN): 628 (4.2 bb) - TAG semi-reg and likely will have a very 'valuey' range.
SB: 700 (4.7 bb) - TAG reg.
BB: 1,971 (13.1 bb) - unknown but seems decent/TAG/reggy.
CO: 1,201 (8 bb) - LAG Fish (reg).

Preflop:
CO folds, Hero raises to 330, SB calls 255

What range would be good to flat in SB's initial spot (Color=purple)? He flatted with J9o and that's certainly a lot wider than I'd think of as being optimal.
I guess his whole "get it in"-range is fine as a flat, but approx. how wide?

It was probably a missclick with J9o. I would flat/get it in with 20-25%.It also depends on how the BB plays. If he folds many +ev hands to keep the bubble alive then we have to call a little bit wider. But never j9o in my opinion.

Seems like a tough spot. So many things to consider. Generally I don't like his play. It is better if BB is unlikely to call because he is pwning. Even then it is probably too lose, I think he can call J9o (+.89) vs ATC assuming tight BB call range, which obv makes calling a shove here kinda ridiculous.

He doesn't really care about BB overcalling.

If you get this shove through he is kinda screwed unless he shoves.

Your stacks are so low that you can't pay that much attention to ICM.

He needs 37.5% To break even in chips and J9o has 44.1% vs you shoving 55% (IDK how accurate that is).

Still the play looks loose but not crazy by any means.

Only way i see this being good is if BB is super passive and gonna let btn get away with the steal too often. The equity jump to btn's stack if he picks up this pot will come more heavily from sb, so so sb can perhaps call closer to Cev with the right conditions.



Ive seen River Prayer do some similar stuff so i assume it's the right play in some spots.


Hero (BTN): 628 (4.2 bb) - TAG semi-reg and likely will have a very 'valuey' range.

riiiiight

The only way this looks good is if bb folds, the sb jams any flop and the button folds. I suppose percentages could be put against that scenario to work out the ev. I agree that ICM isn't going to be close due to the two short stacks.

I guess if I look at it as 100% cEV then his call is borderline breakeven without accounting for future game. You can also argue for next hand - his potential jam spot is into a maniac who might get it in to wide thus getting it in wider than normal in this specific spot is better. I do get the point of cEV maybe being closer to "correct" and on many levels I agree in this spot. And for sure if he thinks he's ahead of my range and think that BB is either gonna be to tight or jam way to wide after his flat thus "collude" me out then a wider flat becomes "less bad".

I think a 22+,A2+,K6s+,K9o+,Q9s+,QTo+,JTs (29.1%) sort of range is what I'd imagine being an acceptable range. Seems accurate or BS?

Actually am borderline tight in 9m ... sometimes... kinda

It's somewhere in between the two. There is no accurate way to measure how far ICM overestimates the EV. The ICM value is still likely to be closer here imo.