$6.50 9man - my AJs steal got re-stolen - MTT Poker Strategy

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$6.50 9man - my AJs steal got re-stolen

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08-17-2010 , 10:06 PM

stakeup3

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 107

Opponent 11VPIP /8PFR regular (381 hands)

I let it go because calling puts me in a bad spot if I lose. How would you play this hand?

Poker Stars $6.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds + t25 - 5 players - View hand 866686
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: t2585 M = 6.08
SB: t2597 M = 6.11
BB: t3137 M = 7.38
Hero (UTG): t3221 M = 7.58
CO: t1960 M = 4.61

Pre Flop: (t425) Hero is UTG with J

Hero raises to t499, CO raises to t1935 all in, 4 folds

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08-17-2010 , 10:21 PM

RagzToRiches

banned

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 3,958

Mmm default I fold but defo stat dependent.

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08-17-2010 , 11:36 PM

movieman2g

Script*****

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 16,938

Quote:

Originally Posted by stakeup3

Opponent 11VPIP /8PFR regular (381 hands)

Quote:

Originally Posted by RagzToRiches

Mmm default I fold but defo stat dependent.

are those stats filtered? have you seen him before? i think a fold is fine on those stats, but if unfiltered and you have a read on him...sometimes ive seen 11/8 type guys who are just lazy and then start spazzing with like Q9, but default i fold. sexy raise pf btw

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08-18-2010 , 12:13 AM

GMINTZ

adept

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 968

tilts me when people size their bet one less than x00 to x99.

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08-18-2010 , 12:38 AM

jjyykk

now YugiohPro

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 9,399

I would fold pre unless I was comfortable calling it off. And I'm not.

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08-18-2010 , 12:54 AM

TomoDaK

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 5,837

If you don't want to call a shove or play post then just shove preflop, with antes I'm pretty certain it's exploitable

Not folding as played

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08-18-2010 , 01:31 AM

marchand

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 193

maybe bad but I'm open shoving or folding here, most likely shoving since we are still 5 handed and I can't see folding AJs. I hate making these raises and guessing what to do when villain comes over top. You have to think what your opponents re raising range is before you open here. I don't really see worse hands shoving since all players have comfortable stacks and our raise looks really strong w/good image.

As played I call and pray he has a pair or is spazzing but I'm 90% sure we are crushed here.

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08-18-2010 , 04:24 AM

Ronny Mahoni

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomoDaK

If you don't want to call a shove or play post then just shove preflop, with antes I'm pretty certain it's unexploitable

Not folding as played

FYP

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08-18-2010 , 05:51 AM

Monkey Banana

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 40,103

I'd just shove pre. You're asking to get shoved over when you raise so you ought to know before you do it what you'll do when it happens. I don't think I'd ever actually find myself in this spot but if I was, I'd make a crying call.

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08-18-2010 , 08:02 AM

#10

stakeup3

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 107

Ok thx for the advice everyone, I wasn't sure if shoving 15bb was risk-reward worth it. 5 handed, how many aggressive 3bettors would you say one needs infront of him to shove this big (or does it even matter and are you shoving 15bb even if there are no aggro 3bettors?).

Stats weren't filtered (you mean by blind level or # of players remaining right?). I don't like filtering because I find stats are most useful to deal with everyday players and for regs I know how they are going to play 90% of the time and for the rest I try to take notes. Btw any opinions on this?

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08-18-2010 , 09:47 AM

#11

michty6

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 4,041

Quote:

Originally Posted by stakeup3

Now you're talking. 1 or 2 aggro 3 bettors = shove pre. 1 to nil aggro 3 bettors then open. Also try to stat using a 3 bet stat.

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08-18-2010 , 09:58 AM

#12

RagzToRiches

banned

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 3,958

Quote:

Originally Posted by movieman2g

11/8 UNFILTERED is tight as bloody aholes but for me either way I fold to those stats. Tho on further reflection I probably do shove pre cos don't wanna have to face the decision with this hand from ep.

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08-18-2010 , 11:20 AM

#13

hornsby15

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 383

Is it worth considering that worse hands won't call a shove, but will shove over a raise? I have a tough time thinking the t425 is worth the risk of a shove pre here with a 15BB stack, but its close. 12BB and under maybe?

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08-18-2010 , 12:12 PM

#14

Jekkpozzifish

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 27

As played, I would have shoved. Against his range (77+, AQo+) we have app 36%. You have to give 1436 to win 4295, which needs 33.4%. Maybe I am wrong because of ICM, but I would have called.

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08-18-2010 , 05:57 PM

#15

jjyykk

now YugiohPro

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 9,399

Ok I ran the numbers. It's a +ev jam.

Wiz suggests jamming something like:
any pair, JTs+, a2s. k5s+, KT+,

this seems absurdly wide. Am I fudging my calculations somewhere? I have 6/5/5/5 calling ranges (AQ/TT+) and 3% overcalling ranges (JJ/AK).

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