No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t2420)
Hero (Button) (t3740)
SB (t4980)
BB (t2360)

Hero's M: 12.47

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K
1 fold, Hero bets t500, SB raises t4880 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls t3240 (All-In)

Flop: (t7680) K, 10, 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t7680) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t7680) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t7680

Can I call?

Raise less pre
call either way . There has to be way more funky bubble stuff going on to make AK a fold

Depends on read of course, but assuming he hasn't gotten out of line, isn't a A+ reshoving reg(doubtful at 6.50), or a maniac this is an easy fold. You're calling off a ton of equity here so we need to have a lot of worse hands in there or a really Ace heavy range.

We need 64.3% equity just to breakeven here, so we need to be up against a range of 30%+.

Obviously there's some value in future bubble pwnage, but he's still going to have to be on 27/28%+ for us to take a small edge here. It's not like we're in horrible position if we fold and can't ever end up in a dominating position.

nice

What about the sizing pf, should I make it for 440? Thanks

The raise pre is fine, but the call isn't.

Spot on imo. By ICM standards this is a puke fold unless you have a read that he's an aggresive reg or a lagfish.

I'm having trouble seeing why its a fold. I sort of understand the ICM calculation of needing to be going up against 30%+ , but at 6.50 limit isnt the chipleader shoving over a 2.5x button raise that wide? Esp when he knows theres two other shorter stacks than you and you dont want to bubble before them.

Or is that type of thinking rare?

Reads would help obviously but without a read I'm usually assuming most players suck, which could make him either shove too much or too little here. Considering he pushed over the raise and you have AK, I dont think he has AA or KK, so at worst you are a flip, that combined with the fact youll be dominating the bubble if you win seems like AK would be a snap call against an unknown.

The last thing you want to be doing is flipping against the chip leader as the second biggest stack. And you can't just assume that because it's a 6.50 everyone is going to shove wide because they suck. Yes everyone sucks for the most part, but w/o a read you shouldn't be assuming they're the type of sucky player who shoves too wide and not the type of sucky player who shoves too little.

Yeah but a flip is the worst case scenario... Youre never crushed here, so just because you don't want to be flipping shouldn't mean you fold?

I'd think a default range for a shover here would include a lot of worse aces and other hands we are ahead of. Its not like its a pair 100% of the time.

I think it must boil down to the fact the other two still have shorter stacks even if we fold ...Guess the original question of: Is a default 6.50 chipleader shoving over 30% in this spot.. and now that I'm looking at it, the answer is probably no. Most probably aren't shoving a hand like JTo.. so I'm starting to understand the comment about needing a particularly "ace heavy" range to make it a call.

Exactly. That's why it's totally read dependent. As posted in the OP it's pretty much impossible to answer. You HAVE to have a read/stats to make this call. And fwiw it's a pretty big mistake to assume you're never crushed here. Plenty of players are gonna shove AA/KK here over standard raising either thinking "ZOMG I have two Aces - I'm All In!" or leveling you into thinking they're restealing light (in a $6.50 not as much this though).

LOL, why is he a "suck" player if he shoves over your raise wide? IMO that would be the opposite of sucking.

ZOMG I have AA - I'm all in is a good player move, why would he be a donk by shoving?

Raise is ok

Never claimed he would be.

It's a fold. A very very painful fold, but a fold. I also have plenty of trouble folding AK on the bubble - although usually I'm re-raising with it not calling - and still lose.

The only hands you can profitably call an all in on the bubble especially against the CL when you are 2nd are QQ+ and depending on the other players' stack only KK+.

If you fold here you'll still have an M of 11, not great but not very bad either. And the PF raise is OK IMO.

PS. In the heat of the battle hands like this one look much better than they actually are.

If I see M one more time in a STT thread, it's gonna tilt me.