villain has a 58% steal over 150 hands, still wizz says fold (A9s, AT), why ICM dictates this?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1,600(BB) Replayer
Hero ($12,346)
BB ($15,295)
CO ($22,811)
BTN ($17,048)

Dealt to Hero A 8

fold, BTN raises to $16,973 (AI), Hero calls $11,471 (AI), fold

If its borderline or even slightly negative $EV its probably a good call as ICM calc in wiz not taking into account effect of paying blinds in subsequent hands.

Why is it -$EV - cos under ICM marginal value of each additional chip you win decreases. But you obv know this. Not quite sure what your asking.

what , dont understand a word, please explain in other words...

Its another way of saying that the chips you win are worth less (in $EV) than the chips you stand to loose. This is why you need a bigger edge when making decisions based on $EV.

In this case your A8o only has 56% against a 58% shoving range. If you fold you have 18.5% $EV. If you call and loose your $EV obv drops to 12%. if you call and win your $EV increases to 23.5% if you win so by calling your risking loosing 6.5% equity but you can only win 5%.

Margins are frequently quite fine and the detail - like the % of times you get looked up by BB - can make a difference. Thats why Sit and go wiz is invaluable for this sort of pokerz.

Edit - im sure you know all this

naa, what source you get this from?
so what your FT decisions are based on if not icm, if we wait for hands with +60% ev vs villains range we blind down?

Im talking about icm - icm uses some Bayesian stats to turn your chip count into a $EV value (based on payout structure).

In my first post when I wrote,

'If its borderline or even slightly negative $EV its probably a good call as ICM calc in wiz not taking into account effect of paying blinds in subsequent hands.'

I meant its ok to take some -$EV spots (where icm says fold) due to blinds.

Think we are misunderstanding each other. Apologies if im not explaining myself very well.

Theoretically yes. BUt thats one of the dilemmas of ICM. Your risking getting ****ed by villains that know your thinking about ICM - otherwise known as 'ICM rape'.

when i review my FT hands my decisions are most often -ev$0.2

Others (JITExpert and Sporific) might disagree but IMO thats ok as ICM only looking at a single hand in isolation. Doesnt factor in a) your increased edge with the bigstack and b) effect of paying blinds in subsequent hands.

So taking +cEV but -$EV races is sometimes good imo.

This is a simple and clear explanation of ICM by the man himself Brad2002tj (and he should know as hes been hoovering up everyones money in the 180's for years).

http://www.brad2002tjpoker.com/?p=75