I think we have more than enough of an equity advantage vs the two opponents to play this hand out of position unless we have a read than MP is particularly nitty. I think your model is making a few incorrect assumptions:
- AQo has more value than just hitting a top pair. It makes a nut straight, it has showdown value as an ace high. Oh and it can make 2 strong flush draws on mono boards
- If we miss on the flop, 3-way it's not a cert. that this flop will be c-bet by the preflop raiser. We may get more cards free or even have the chance of showing down our A high. If we have the read than MP is badaggro enough that he will cbet his entire range, we might be able to call on some flops like a dry 422, especially if we have a backdoor flush. Or on like a JJT board or something. OR, if he does cbet 100% then we know we have a lot of implied odds calling preflop because we can get in a nice checkraise when we do hit a pair.
- i'm sure you can fold here an play sngs profitably, but i imagine calling is more profitable against most opponents.
- fwiw we can't c-bet this flop (just a technicality - but we weren't the preflop raiser). I would never consider donk-bluffing if we miss the flop. With a strong ace-high we will probably only fold out worse hands.