Freeroll to the WSOP ME. 3 players get a seat, no other places pay out.

Unknown villain. I'd assume he's reggy, and not a huge fish because he's outlasted 1700+ players to get this far.

Flop
Someone said this is a good board to barrel, and that I should have cbet. While that may be true, I don't think it is with our exact hand and effective stack sizes. Thoughts?

Turn
I don't see much value in a bet. I'd rather let him bet his air or draws and not get raised by those combos or Kx/sets. I'd obviously be b/f'ing if I bet, and wouldn't like doing so because if he's a reg and/or aggro he can be raising turn w/ a number of draws I'm ahead of.

A couple of pros to betting turn - I can set the price myself and then c/f river happily on a lot of bad ones, or block bet/f. I also get value vs hands that would be checking back. Betting may make the hand easier to play and prevent me from having to play guessing games on the river.

Reason to check - Mainly to induce. The problem is villain can easily be betting river for value or a bluff, who knows how often with each, just a huge guessing game.

River
sigh. given that we know nothing, the only thing we really have to draw on is his sizing. obviously the big bet is scary, but I don't think we can fold every time someone bets big. I play mostly cash though; maybe huge bets in tourneys this late are nearly always nut hands?

even if we are ahead, it may just not be worth calling because we have a nice stack and don't really need to call. even if a call is +ev, it may not be +chip ev.

Is chip ev an actual term MTT regs use? am I applying it right here?

You bet the flop so you have more info and can make better choices vs being lost like now. I doubt he's gonna be bluffing here especially as one of the shortest. Without betting once post you have no idea where you're at. As a cash game player you'd think you'd know how to play post. B/f would probably be best otr.

My experience in tourneys is the opposite, people on the final table try to win hands postflop they shouldn't be trying to.

The bet isn't that huge, and I'd probably elect to call here... Q10 and KQ are pretty scary to me here, but I would be surprised if he didn't bet his King (or 2 pair) on the flop, the nine doesn't seem to change enough to fold. Not jumping for joy.

I don't hate your line at all, and you have good reasoning. This has to be a spot to call though, if it's the line you're going to take.

Your hand cant be strong and two streets can take it down. Scares will hit and even the less scary will set you up for a tough one

You wont get two streets of value anyway on the checking back, so lost bets shouldnt be your main concern and is not relevant here. Sure you will stand without anything the times it goes c/c ott and otr but we can leave that. The last part should have been practiced, you need some info/balance to disguise here.

Check back from villain otf discards some draws and we can expect him to bet TP+. There arent many hands we should be scared of though. How dynamics affect this for one certain player is a tough one to answer. We lack sample size for 2 checks here. It will be too hard to judge.

To say that you gain dollars and not chips here sounds contradictive. What's your reasoning for that? You're saying that a slight negative will give you future ev? Then you're not accounting for the opposite

just b/f flop given that its a satty.

yeah b/f flop. and c/f river as played. even though FD missed there are a lot of other draws that got there and he can have 2pairs.

b/f flop, fold river as played

agree


b/f flop
c/f river

Definitely b/f flop.

As played fold river.

Definitely b/f flop.

As played fold river.

You mean the opposite.

I agree I will only get one street (on the river); that's why I elected to check turn again. I misspoke about him checking back ott; that was a minor point, only said that as I was thinking aloud, trying to list a bunch of reasons for either play.

I may have used the term wrong. Does someone have a link explaining chipEV? The concept I was getting at was that although a cbet+ double or triple barrel may be +EV, c/f'ing and electing not to take an aggro line may be better considering my stack, their stacks, and the circumstances of the tourney/sat - basically it may be better to conserve/wait for a better spot?

I like the rest of your post also. Thanks for taking the time to address my points, appreciate that.


Good to know about first point. Your river points + nonplussed's river sentiment is the reason I made the thread. It felt like it should be a c/c, but also a c/f - I thought it was kinda close at the time. Looking back though it's a c/f imo. I shouldn't be in this spot though; I should have already bet myself. Another reason I made the thread is I'm not usually in this spot because I've nearly always bet.


I disagree with everyone saying bet the flop; I think people cbet too much and this is an example. I definitely like betting the turn however.


I thought I meant what I said. If someone could read what I said regarding that a few lines up, they can help clarify that for me? thanks

this is a terrible assumption.

agree with others that i would b/f flop. river is a c/f without better reads.

gotta cbet a king high board here

fold pre

^ha hadn't thought of that. I let my bigstack get to me I suppose...I can't remember the last time I 1M+ chips ha

I had been playing the tournament as a full-on tournament because it kinda was essentially. I had been debating when I should go into satellite mode. If we are playing as a sat at this point, then AJo is def a fold. Now that you mention it, it may even be a fold in a regular tourney.

+CEV means in the long run/on average you are going to gain tournament chips. +EV means in the long run/on average you will actually win more money from the tournament prize pool or whatever.

So that is to say.. In your example, you might think that on average, calling will be profitable in the long run in terms of CEV, and we will gain an average of xxx chips when we call, in the long run. Yet, it may not be +EV because when we win, we don't win as much as we lose. E.g. an extreme example of a 9 man SnG where 3 people get paid, if the stack sizes are

10000 BB
10000 SB
1
1

SB shoves and accidentally shows 32o, BB should still fold AA even though it is huge +CEV, it is -EV...

Okay, that makes perfect sense now. Great example, thanks!

Would you say that although a call may be +CEV, there is more EV in folding here?

Yes, exactly, also known as it's +cEV but not +EV A very common reason for this is because you have a huge skill edge over the rest of the field, calling and being busted is a huge loss since if we are still in we have a lot of room to outplay opponents etc

yeah, totally. Thank you, thank you

A freeroll sat, with only 1700 players, for 3 WSOP ME seats?

More details please!

Oh yeah and fold pre.

lol don't fold pre. Raise is fine, b/f flop. Now fold.

I'm sure you must have some valid reason for wanting to open, but it certainly isn't a "lol don't fold pre" situation.

There are times you c-bet light and times you don't. When are you planning to Cbet if not on a K x x flop?