Fulltilt. Standard 50/30/20 payout if you didnt know.



Adjusted the ranges. How big of a neg edge can we take here. This seems like a crying fold to me. But after some review of my play, it looks like I need to be shoving wider. Should I be shoving here?

This is a pretty tough spot IMO. On one side, if you get called, you're probably in a pretty bad spot. Crying fold indeed... lol

However, on the other side, you're next up to bat for the blinds and you're going to lose half of your stack if you get back to back garbage hands. You'll still have a fighting chance after the blinds to catch something reasonable and see another round. If you shove, you might get a call from a worse hand from the big stack since he's already in for 50 and ppl will typically make looser calls this close to the button.

After thinking about it, I think a shove is best here. I think the CO and BTN are folding a LOT of hands... some better than yours (kinda what I meant before by if you get called you're probably in bad shape) so that leaves us with the SB who will be calling with a wider range (but you still have a big enough stack to get a fold from him) and the BB is kinda player dependent, he'll either fold and try to survive for a better spot or just get it in and pray.

So yeah... it's close, and I don't think it's a *huge* leak to fold, but I think shoving here will yield more positive results in the long run.

I'd fold only because BB will call pretty much ATC. If BB had say 350+ chips I think you have to take the negative edge and shove.

IMO ATC is fine. In my experience with soopers you need to take advantage of small edges like these. These tournaments are very high variance... and I think a shove here is best in a few ways. We still have some fold equity over the BB if he's stingy, and if he isn't, we're still ahead often against him. Also shoving will put us in a much better spot as we can afford to tighten up a bit (whereas we'd have to hope for a decent shoving hand in the next few hands if we fold this) and force both the BB and CO to make something happen or they'll be out and we'll be in the moneyz.

If I'm in BBs spot, Im prob folding like bottom 15-20% of hands or so. I can see other players folding more, which is why I put him on calling 60%.

Drew, we definitely need to take some kind of neg edge here. The question is just how much.

Wow modeling ST situations appears pretty hard and the huge swings must really take some of the confidence away... How do you cope with it man?

On the hand now... Are you confident about your range setting? I don't play ST's but BB range looks tight and the other three look wide.

The situation looks pretty grim and I can't imagine folding here. If you fold on the next hand you will have to call 80%-85% based on what you said which is something wiz will also condemn.

yeah I think my ranges might have been a little off. These are the 5s and were all short so I could see some randos with 300 or 500 calling my shove with any ace.

I changed ranges to (from my left) 14, 16.9, 25.8 and 67.9%. Strangely enough, it still says our push is -1.54. I really feel like this is a push, so i guess we can take that big of a neg edge here.

Variance is mostly a function or ROI, and I have a good ROI at the 5s so I havent had too much negative varaince. I've only played like 3500 games so we'll see.