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40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... 40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  .....

11-10-2008 , 07:59 PM
I like my play here , trying to analyze any aspect during the hand .

reads :
BTN: 8/8/35
I raised a decent amount of hands (standart imo , giving stacks at table), shown down AK once .
I r/f to BTN the hand before , same raise/reraise betsizing .

math :
I need 44.9% cEV after my raise . BTN has 35.9% cEV after reraising .

ICM :
With 3 very short players left ( dont know how to calulate ICM with 12 ) ICM considering becomes very importend .

What Im realy thinking about is :
- how much FE do I have here , any ?
- what is ASPoker8 reraise-HR giving ICM and his almost 2/1 pot odds after reraising me ? ( 66+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+ imo )



Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, $40,000 Guarantee, 3,000/6,000 Blinds, 750 Ante, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+1: 144,388
MP: 131,073
Hero (CO): 192,716
BTN: 161,312 Aspoker8
SB: 48,553
BB: 46,526
UTG: 514,815

Pre-Flop: (14,250) A Q dealt to Hero (CO)
3 folds, Hero raises to 15,250, BTN raises to 40,110, 2 folds, Hero raises to 191,966 and is All-In
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote
11-10-2008 , 08:02 PM
I like it
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote
11-10-2008 , 09:43 PM
Ugh, i don't like it. Here's why: Adam's stack size is very awkward (27BB), and, being the good player that he is, this means that he knows he can't really reraise-fold with that stack, and so is probably never going to be making moves in this particular situation. Therefore I think his range is really quite tight, something like TT+ AQ+, weighted towards the top end of that range.

If he had, say 15-20BB then I think it would be a snap call, but because of his awkward stack size and the fact he's a good player I think it's a fold.
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote
11-11-2008 , 01:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zedveron
Ugh, i don't like it. Here's why: Adam's stack size is very awkward (27BB), and, being the good player that he is, this means that he knows he can't really reraise-fold with that stack, and so is probably never going to be making moves in this particular situation. Therefore I think his range is really quite tight, something like TT+ AQ+, weighted towards the top end of that range.

If he had, say 15-20BB then I think it would be a snap call, but because of his awkward stack size and the fact he's a good player I think it's a fold.

def possible , but what would Adam do , lets say with 66-99 /AT,AJ,KQs ?
Those hands beat my range , so I dont think he would fold to my openraise . Flat or r/r AI are unlikely imo , so only other way would be a different betsize like a 2.5 r/r ......

.... still not sure , would like to discuss
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote
11-11-2008 , 04:36 AM
If he knows your a reg and he thinks you know him...could be some leveling going on. Maybe hed shove the top of his range and make the 3bet with the middle/bottom. Anyway, I don't know anything about villian but I think your play is fine. With 12 players still left ICM shouldn't be that big of a factor imo (unless there are tiny stacks like <3bbs)
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote
11-11-2008 , 06:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by just_me_but......
def possible , but what would Adam do , lets say with 66-99 /AT,AJ,KQs ?
Those hands beat my range , so I dont think he would fold to my openraise . Flat or r/r AI are unlikely imo , so only other way would be a different betsize like a 2.5 r/r ......

.... still not sure , would like to discuss
I think he might fold most of those hands.
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote
11-11-2008 , 06:53 AM
isn't this a spot where he has to fold marginal hands that are ahead of your open range but behind your 4bet shove range given that he shouldn't be 4bet folding with his stack and he can't flat the small pairs for set value?
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote
11-11-2008 , 07:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zedveron
Therefore I think his range is really quite tight, something like TT+ AQ+, weighted towards the top end of that range.

this is an insanely dumb tight range
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote
11-11-2008 , 08:02 PM
This is a CO open...I think his 3 betting range is a lot wider and I don't think it automatically is only hands that call a 4 bet shove
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote
11-11-2008 , 08:08 PM
Someone asked me to comment, so here are a few thoughts:

-At this point in the tournament, I had recognized you were a good player (I use hold'em manager for stats and I was sorta paying attention to this table)
-I'm probably 3b/folding very rarely given my stack size and 3b size, but I don't think you should know this at the time
-My range for continuing is much looser than TT+, AQ+ and I am absolutely not folding 66, AT, KQ
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote
11-11-2008 , 08:31 PM
soooooo zedveron, if someone is a good player and you raise from the CO and the reraise you, they automatically have a tight range b/c they are good?!?!! NO NO NO!!! If anything, they are playing their position better by 3betting lighter (and very rarely 3betting folding here/ but possibly). I am neva folding AQ here with these kind of stack sizes, espically on FTP, and espically vs good players who should be 3betting correctly.
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote
11-12-2008 , 05:46 AM
no, i realise a good player would be 3-betting lighter, but i just don't see how it can be +EV to 3-bet-call with 66 or AT, 27BB deep vs a solid tag.
40K at FTP  12 left:   ICM , math , ASPoker8  ..... Quote

      
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