Final table

MP1 is pretty active player, but no special reads on him

Let's try to find out MP1 repush range and make an appropriate desicion with this hand.

Aq+,99+ considering his stats maybe aqs+ 1010
Call

The absence of another short stack makes this a jam for me. If there were another stack or two at 8-14BB I may ICM nit up here. But I think this is a fistpump.

Range for villain is tough, some villains don't know not to jam their monsters here, some see KK+ and think "omfg I got him" and don't think of all the value they lose by cramming super strong hands. I'm going to say if he's been pretty active that he has a clue, so:

AJs+ AQo+ 99-QQ

99+ A10s+

ATs for 22bb after a shove and an iso?

thanx for the analysis and you forced me to google what's fistpump. As ukrainians say, you kill two rabbits with one shot)

OP has to call t26,578 to win t33,578. (26,578 to win 20,703 from the isolation bet side pot).

tightest of ranges for both players is 22+, Ax, and any two broadway cards for the shover and AQ+ and 99+ for the iso shover.

With those ranges, we will win both pots 34% of the time, the first shover will win the main pot 24% of the time and we will win the side pot 49% of the time against the isolation shove. The isolation shove iwll win both pots 42% of the time.

So:

33,578*.34 = 11,417
20,703*.24*.49 = 2,434
- 26,578*.24*.51 = -3253
- 26,578*.42 = -11,162

Therefore a shove here (agasint the tightest of ranges) is -cEV of -564.

:Edit: I am working on looser ranges for the reshove now. Will post when done.

iso-range : probably something like 77/88+ , QKs+/ATs/AJo+

i am eager to get my chips in there

UTG+2 is wideeee

I just ran the number for the iso being AJ+ and 77+ and the short stack shove is the smae range as above. We win both pots 36% of the time, the isolator wins both pots 39% of the time and the short stack wins the main pot 25% of the time and we win the side pot 52% of the time.

Those numbers come out that agaisnt this range is +cEV of 3,709.

The loss listed above is 15% of the win listed here. So he has to have the tight range 85% or better to make a fold here correct.

25/8 5%3bet over that sample is NOT active.

AK is the worst hand i'd get in.

But ... his 3 bet range is top 5%, (AQ+ and 99+ is top 5% (some place KQs and remove 99 in the top 5%, but I think heads up all in 99 plays better than KQs)), which I've shown mathematically is a bad call. However, he seems to call a little too often as the 25% vpip would indicate. Wouldn't he be trying to be isolating often with hands in his calling range as opposed to hands only in his 3 bet range?

obv he will isolate AQ/99 but also worse like ATs/KQs/55-77. some go even wider.

that guy might show up with A8s/ATo since he plays 25% of hands overall and its hard to predict what his EXACT isorange is here. but its wider than 99+/AQ+ fme and AK is a call.