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4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB 4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB

08-25-2010 , 06:02 PM
There's currently 12 left in the tourney. Villain has TAG stats and counting this jam, he's shoved on me 4 out of 5 times BvB. Can we snap him off here, or fold and try to pick on other soft spots at the table?
Obviously it's super marginal, but another thing to consider is I don't want to keep surrendering my blind and I've folded to all of his previous attempts.
Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t400/t800 Blinds + t75 - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BB): t10090 M = 6.12
UTG: t15700 M = 9.52
MP: t14940 M = 9.05
CO: t26787 M = 16.23
BTN: t19185 M = 11.63
SB: t15964 M = 9.68

Pre Flop: (t1650) Hero is BB with 2 A
4 folds, SB raises to t15889 all in, Hero

Last edited by feedthabeast; 08-25-2010 at 06:10 PM.
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-25-2010 , 06:26 PM
You need to chip up for a good FT run, the average at a FT is 30000. If you are facing two cards between A2o, you are ahead 55/45, could be ahead 60/40 if he holds two low cards and one of them is a diamond.

Don't hate a call here. Can see a fold if you feel good about your ability to pushbot effectively next orbit or two.
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-25-2010 , 06:52 PM
I fold if the 2 players to your left aren't good regs. If they are then I call.
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-25-2010 , 11:43 PM
If you want to take every possible +EV spot, then call
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-26-2010 , 12:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zdctg
If you want to take every possible +EV spot, then call
.
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-26-2010 , 02:21 AM
+1 to JIT, folding and calling is both fine.
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-26-2010 , 03:52 AM
hes likely shoving ATC but its still going to be flipping, I probably call here assuming I'm ahead and flipping and hope to hold
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-26-2010 , 05:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by furo
+1 to JIT, folding and calling is both fine.
Yeah, this is why I was torn. I knew it was +ev call vs his shoving range, but I also feel comfortable pushbotting and, if necessary, grinding my stack up as the short stack at the final table since people call way too tight in these. Bleh.
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-26-2010 , 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feedthabeast
Yeah, this is why I was torn. I knew it was +ev call vs his shoving range, but I also feel comfortable pushbotting and, if necessary, grinding my stack up as the short stack at the final table since people call way too tight in these. Bleh.
I would definitely fold feeling confident above shoving into other blinds later
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-27-2010 , 07:26 AM
If you're that confident about finding later opportunites then folding will probably be lower variance. In a 4/180 regular speed tourney that may well be true. If this was a 2/180 turbo instead, then I'd be snapcalling.
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-27-2010 , 10:33 AM
There are few chips at this table and if you double, you set yourself up real well for FT. This is a call. Pushbotting is great and if there were 15 left, I would see more validity to the fold and wait for a better spot argument, but there will only be ~3-6 more orbits before FT and having a stack to play with at this juncture makes winning one of these so much easier. Stack up, abuse the bubble.
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-27-2010 , 10:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feedthabeast
Yeah, this is why I was torn. I knew it was +ev call vs his shoving range, but I also feel comfortable pushbotting and, if necessary, grinding my stack up as the short stack at the final table since people call way too tight in these. Bleh.
Fold then, feel comf. You can steal the dead chips. No need to battle while cold war is effective.
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-27-2010 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvelle
Fold then, feel comf. You can steal the dead chips. No need to battle while cold war is effective.
Problem is, if the seat directly to your right is abusing the bubble aggressively, you might not get a chance to do it yourself.

That said, folding prob = call $EV wise?
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote
08-27-2010 , 11:35 AM
ICM is a great tool and someone can run the #s if they want, but ICM does not quantify the additional benefit gained from being able to take advantage of the bubble. Nor does it take into account table draw, which based on others stacks, would be huge. I’d be surprised if ICM says call vs. reasonable range, but I bet it is close. I do not think this is an ICM spot and we all agree it is +cEV. You benefit from knocking out the TAG player abusing the bubble. You benefit from the big stack vs. the small stacks when you win the race. You benefit from the rest of the players watching you make an A2o call. Who really is going to try to steal your blinds light after that? Poker is situational and this is a situational call.
4/180 FT Bubble A2o BvB Quote

      
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