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3r: Good spot to squeeze? 3r: Good spot to squeeze?

07-21-2009 , 05:52 PM
MP2 was pretty lag 26/20.4 over 105 hands.
BTN was 7.6/ 5.7 over about 90 hands.
I think my hand is kind of irrelevant here, good spot to squeeze? Or does my hand make a difference?

Poker Stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t625/t1250 Blinds + t150 - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: t9309 M = 2.89
UTG+1: t11089 M = 3.44
UTG+2: t57272 M = 17.76
MP1: t7225 M = 2.24
MP2: t29789 M = 9.24
CO: t1697 M = 0.53
BTN: t16412 M = 5.09
SB: t15780 M = 4.89
Hero (BB): t30426 M = 9.43

Pre Flop: (t3225) Hero is BB with J 7
4 folds, MP2 raises to t3750, 1 fold, BTN calls t3750, 1 fold, Hero raises to t30276 all in


edit: this is about 80 away from the money, 7k+ runners
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-21-2009 , 05:55 PM
this tilts me more than anything....stop trying to be a hero....you dnot need to...god damn its tilting....You do not need to shove ATC to win tourneys....and even if there were decent times in micro donkaments that shoving ATC over a raise and a flat..it is not when the caller had 13 BBs
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-21-2009 , 05:59 PM
BTN's stats indicate he is a superduper nit and he just put in like 25% of his stack preflop... if you think J7o is ahead of btn's range or that he is ever folding you have amazing reads or you can see his hole cards. if he folded here i honestly think you got lucky and would note down on btn's player note that he is an idiot.
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-21-2009 , 06:07 PM
Yeah, looking back at this hand I realize I kind of discounted the BTN and just saw that MP2 was raising my BB again. This is pretty bad I guess.

If BTN was running say 18/14 and had 22k is this still spewy? Are we never 3bet squeezing w/ air?
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-21-2009 , 06:10 PM
my best guess: Btn would need like 40k+ after the call for this to even be decent and something closer to like 20/15 yeah since that would be a greater indicator that he was going to try to take the pot away from a weak/loose opener. right now his flat just pretty much screams he has AK or pocket tens or something and is just scared of going all in because he's a supernit and doesn't want the other guy to fold.
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-21-2009 , 06:12 PM
Its not that your never 3bet squeezing with Air, but generally in a tournament like the $3rebuy the players are NOT going to give you credit for the hands that your representing. I've won the $3 rebuy outright 3 times, and I've noticed that the way to play it is pretty straight forward... value bet the hell out of your good hands, pay attention to the players, and try and play a solid game. The way you beat these 3,000+ player fields is by minimizing your risks, and if you make plays like this too often your going to spew chips.

Later on in this these tournaments there are definitely spots where you can 3bet light, but this situation the stack sizes don't quite call for it.
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-22-2009 , 02:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by you won, don't sho
Yeah, looking back at this hand I realize I kind of discounted the BTN and just saw that MP2 was raising my BB again. This is pretty bad I guess.

If BTN was running say 18/14 and had 22k is this still spewy? Are we never 3bet squeezing w/ air?

you really dont need to....your not near deep enough where you need to be making these plays......Esp with a flat caller...
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-22-2009 , 03:20 AM
thats the blowup of the week for me
but if it worked vs the button pls tell me his ingame name
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-22-2009 , 01:36 PM
isn't a flat caller a necessary part of a squeeze?

and interestingly enough, mp called, btn folded.
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-22-2009 , 01:41 PM
Uber nit button confirmed!
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-22-2009 , 01:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by you won, don't sho
isn't a flat caller a necessary part of a squeeze?

and interestingly enough, mp called, btn folded.
if a donk flat calls its Ax or KJ or some trash that cant stand the RR, vs that rock i would never ever consider pushing if he flats a raise for 1/4 -1/3 of his stack.
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-22-2009 , 02:17 PM
Your hand obviously makes a difference when you're going to be called with the tight flatter w/ 10BB behind a lot more than preferable. He could be trying to make a stand against the LAG, but I think he's more likely to either be shoving over him with the weaker hands that we could fold out, while also possibly trapping him with his stronger hands. This situation isn't good, just fold. I shove something like {AQ+, 99+} here.
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote
07-22-2009 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CCuster_911
this tilts me more than anything....stop trying to be a hero....you dnot need to...god damn its tilting....You do not need to shove ATC to win tourneys....and even if there were decent times in micro donkaments that shoving ATC over a raise and a flat..it is not when the caller had 13 BBs
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thamel18
Your hand obviously makes a difference when you're going to be called with the tight flatter w/ 10BB behind a lot more than preferable. He could be trying to make a stand against the LAG, but I think he's more likely to either be shoving over him with the weaker hands that we could fold out, while also possibly trapping him with his stronger hands. This situation isn't good, just fold. I shove something like {AQ+, 99+} here.
I agree with both of these and really don't like the play. I mean, there will be times when a situation like this presents itself that you determine is profitable based on special circumstances in which you determine you have a tremendous amount of fold equity against each villain. In other words, it's very rare in the 3r, and you would not be making a mistake if you never, ever did this.

That said, we can be sure this situation is not the right situation, if there is a right situation, in the 3r. BTN's VPIP is 7.6% of hands. He's going to call your shove A TON. It would be fair to assume that someone who plays 7.6% hands plays hand ranges that include a significant number of premium hands that they will never fold.

Think about this: Assuming Stove range distributions, for a loose villain who plays 50/10, the hands 88+,AJs+,AJo+ make up around 10% of his entire range (those strong hands are in the top 6% of hands... and villain plays 50% of hands, so 6/50 = close to 10%).

But for your villain on the BTN, who is only getting involved 7.6% of the time, those top 6% hands (again, making an assumption of even distribution) make up nearly 80% of his (6/7.6) range!

You have soooo little fold equity against BTN. I'll guess he folds 30% - 40% of the time, maximum (edit: and that's truly using the definition of "maximum;" my real estimation is 5% - 10%). And you have a hand that requires MUCH more fold equity to have a profitable shove.

Last edited by Willyoman; 07-22-2009 at 02:34 PM.
3r: Good spot to squeeze? Quote

      
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