Quote:
Originally Posted by CCuster_911
this tilts me more than anything....stop trying to be a hero....you dnot need to...god damn its tilting....You do not need to shove ATC to win tourneys....and even if there were decent times in micro donkaments that shoving ATC over a raise and a flat..it is not when the caller had 13 BBs
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thamel18
Your hand obviously makes a difference when you're going to be called with the tight flatter w/ 10BB behind a lot more than preferable. He could be trying to make a stand against the LAG, but I think he's more likely to either be shoving over him with the weaker hands that we could fold out, while also possibly trapping him with his stronger hands. This situation isn't good, just fold. I shove something like {AQ+, 99+} here.
I agree with both of these and really don't like the play. I mean, there will be times when a situation like this presents itself that you determine is profitable based on special circumstances in which you determine you have a tremendous amount of fold equity against each villain. In other words, it's very rare in the 3r, and you would not be making a mistake if you never, ever did this.
That said, we can be sure this situation is not the right situation, if there is a right situation, in the 3r. BTN's VPIP is 7.6% of hands. He's going to call your shove A TON. It would be fair to assume that someone who plays 7.6% hands plays hand ranges that include a significant number of premium hands that they will never fold.
Think about this: Assuming Stove range distributions, for a loose villain who plays 50/10, the hands 88+,AJs+,AJo+ make up around 10% of his entire range (those strong hands are in the top 6% of hands... and villain plays 50% of hands, so 6/50 = close to 10%).
But for your villain on the BTN, who is only getting involved 7.6% of the time, those top 6% hands (again, making an assumption of even distribution) make up nearly 80% of his (6/7.6) range!
You have soooo little fold equity against BTN. I'll guess he folds 30% - 40% of the time, maximum (edit: and that's truly using the definition of "maximum;" my real estimation is 5% - 10%). And you have a hand that requires MUCH more fold equity to have a profitable shove.
Last edited by Willyoman; 07-22-2009 at 02:34 PM.