Poker Stars $36+$3 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 6 players - View hand 42490
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CO: t2140 M = 47.56
BTN: t1460 M = 32.44
SB: t1410 M = 31.33
BB: t1450 M = 32.22
Hero (UTG): t1540 M = 34.22
MP: t1000 M = 22.22

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises to t90, 4 folds, BB calls t60

Flop: (t195) 6 J 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t120, [color=red]BB raises to t360
Hero????????????

Villain is a winning reg over 11k games.
We never normally tangle early and this is one of the first times he has chk/raised me on the flop. About 80% of the time he flats me pf he will check/fold. otherwise he will just check/call so this was a really weird line.

My guess is you are probably ahead right now and he has some sort of combo draw with a ton of outs. A set is definately a possibility and I can see him CR right away to protect against FD. I would probably flat flop and re-evaluate on the turn if you reaaaaaallly trust your read on villain and you play him often (I would shove against unknowns). If the turn come a non J,K,A non heart card I would shove.

I think folding is your best option if he's never doing this with a hand like AJ or KJ. Since he's a reg he's probably not calling your UTG raise with these hands, so really it can only be a set or a huge draw like AK of hearts. You are drawing close to dead against a set and are the underdog against AK hearts. Also there is some chance he could be taking a tricky line with AA/KK.. I don't see how you can be ahead here, I'd just fold and take a note about what happened, just in case he decides he can outplay you with this line in the future.

I think you're never ahead here

I just think given your previous history I would fold. He has rr an utg raiser who has shown strength, it doesnt seem worth it to me

if u think villain isn't making a move on you just b/c of image we can put villain on
66,88,jj,t9h(maybe). seeing as the 3 most likely holdings crush your range it's a fold.

Would never fold vs a losing player tho

The only possible hand a good winning reg could have that you beat is Ah Jh, otherwise, you're pretty much behind his range.

you're all way 2 nitty point blank

Do you really think so with our read?

he's getting 2/1 to call preflop and ur auto putting him on a set

What can he have that we beat though sizzlin?
Hes a pretty straight forward nit-reg.
So I figured his range was pretty much 66,88,JJ,AA,KK,9Thh,AJhh
Against that range I have 19% equity. Obv that is pretty tight a range, possibly too nitty I'm not sure.
If we give him a looser range of 66,88,JJ,AA,KK,9Thh,AKhh,J9+hh,J8,AJ we have equity of 35%. If we take out AJ which Im pretty certain he wouldnt check raise with we have 23% equity.

I like this more than shoving the flop, and this is my standard line against a lot of players where they're more likely to have a portion of air to their range.

He's a "winning reg" so I expect his range is at least fairly tight. He has raised for value on the flop, and his range for that doesn't have all that much I beat in it imo. I'm not putting him on any particular single hand, but I am likely going to have to put my stack in against a range I am not ahead of.

Clearly, you analyse it differently. Fair enough, but what are you putting in his range that makes continuing with the hand good and what action are you proposing? Bearing in mind, of course, that putting him only on hands you beat is just as bad, worse in this spot, than putting him only on a set.

this is awful if he has a str8/ flushdraw it's not only 9/10hh he has to have other combos if he's calling here w/ 9/10s he's prob calling w/ other suited hands
aa/kk are like right out the window here 1st of all that flop is way to cordinated for him to be checking hoping for a c-bet pretty sure he'd have to protect and seriously people flat kk/aa a lot lets then people think. 9/10hh could be in there i just don't think it's a huge % yes 66/88 are in there jj too i would believe. Now where the hell is all this other stuff coming from ok guys who aren't 3 betting aks 6 max are few and far between even nitty players. j9hh is w/e i guess aj/kj/qjs are logical preflop calls based on situation however i doubt he check raises kjs or qjs here so aj is deff in there. Lol to j8 being in there we want to say this guy is tight but is playing 3 gappers outta position? In regards to he just check folds a huge % of flops well if he's mostly calling w/ pp and meakly giving up unless he flops a top pair w/ like aq etc...then he's folding a huge% of the time that doesn't mean he's check calling aj here on a 2 heart board that's cordinated...that would be absurd...think aobut it this way what would you do with aj here? actually any jack you flop and yes he can have larger combos of hands even nitty players ocassionaly take cheap flops w/ k10s q/10s etc etc...i'm not saying that we're a huge fav vs range but the range that you guys have come up w/ this is absurd and thinking that check raise means wow that's it hand over allows this guy to basically check raise you at will

I'm so sticking it here also i like how he's raised for value what do you want him to do ship? i mean it's really early just cuz some1 check raises doesn't mean it's set only

If he's really very very tight against you, just fold. If someone wants to fold a ton of hands in a row against me, I'll give them some tight laydowns every now and then. Just don't let them get carried away.

I think you're confusing this guy with a winning reg at your stakes sizzlin. He is a nit. Theres quite a high chance he IS flatting AKs against my nitty UTG raise as he doesn't want to get 4bet. Hes unimaginitive. Not a decent HS reg.

If I were to weight the range I gave the villain then I'd probably give like 2-5% to AA,KK and like another few % to J8. As I agree people very rarely flat AA-KK pf.
But you contradict yourself, as he's getting 2 to 1 with a suited three gapper against a nitty UTG range, now youre saying he won't call?
I'd rather have J8s here than KJos.
Now I think about it I think theres more chance he would have AJ, but still think its alot smaller part of his range than the stuff that crushes us.
Also you said if hes flatting KK+ pf then hes most likely to bet out to protect his hand, shouldnt he be doing this with AJ too? as opposed to c/raising it?

No, it doesn't, and as I said, I don't only put sets in his range, but he has to think he's ahead of our UTG raising range on that flop because he has raised for value. I don't think he has to ship, but his bet doesn't say "I want you to fold" to me.

looked at this again and tbh villain should be relatively tight pre vs an utg raise esp if he's profitable.

given that he c/r's flop and is not screwing around with OP the only logical hands are some sort of combodraw/over+fd/set (no 2pair in his range here). I don't know why anyone would not 3b an utg raise with AA/KK so we can take that out.

Against this range we're really either flipping or extremely behind so I think fold is better since we're really only at ~ 60% equity in the best possible situation and most likely 50% or much worse in others.

how do you guys play top pair?

Is that bleurain?

I think he either has AJhh or a set. I think he would flatcall his top pair hands en his flushdraws most of the time.
I just think he has to be very tight here because you raised utg.

Depends on reads, and on the board, and how high my top pair is. But usually I just lead out like 80% of the time.

Fold > call >> shove

for above reasons

yeah is it bleu?

blue (english) = bleu (french)
who woulda thunk it :-/