What do u think is the shoving range from the CO from a random with 3.5BB? No reads. Is it ATC? Do u find a fold here?


Poker Stars $33+$3 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t300/t600 Blinds + t50 - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t8410 M = 6.23
Hero (BB): t3320 M = 2.46
UTG: t5670 M = 4.20
UTG+1: t8430 M = 6.24
UTG+2: t5335 M = 3.95
MP1: t6995 M = 5.18
MP2: t5620 M = 4.16
CO: t2175 M = 1.61
BTN: t3964 M = 2.94

Pre Flop: (t1350) Hero is BB with 6 8
5 folds, CO raises to t2125 all in, 2 folds

ATC call. You need 30% and have no FE.

Looking at it the other way, on a call you are risking about 1500 chips to win about 4500. So you would need to know you are greater than a 3-1 dog for calling to be -EV. The only hands against which you aren't getting those odds are pairs 99+. So I would call.

EDIT: I had written about why you should fold this and wait to open shove or have higher card(s). but after running the math, I changed my mind.


even tho it should technically be any two cards... in reality, the range is probably more like this: (unless he knows his sh#t)
22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K8o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o

which comes out to:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

787,659,840 games 1.812 secs 434,690,860 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

...............equity
Hand 0: 61.446% { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 38.554% { 8h6h }


so I guess this is a call... A VERY CLEAR CALL

interesting...

even if I just give the villain a wider 50% or a tighter 40%

it comes out very close to the above results.


and if it REALLY is ATC....
CHECK THIS OUT !

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,097,572,400 games 4.328 secs 484,651,663 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

..............equity
Hand 0: 53.757% { random }
Hand 1: 46.243% { 8h6h }


(TY, I (re)-learned something important here)

This is the conundrum I find myself in frequently near the end of 180s. My preferred course of action is to obviously shove rather than calling a shove. I will usually call here unless I have a reading on the villain saying he rarely steals. It is amazing how even with only a few bbs and "no fold equity" everyone will fold to your shove.

Just take your edges in 180's, this is a very clear +cev spot.

I probably do overthink the small edges too much sometimes :-/

But in the end +ev is +ev

quite true... I find that often (in $20 or less games esp.) even fairly big stacks will fold to any raise of more than 4bb's ... LOL

amazing.


I used to run a lot of hands and variations through pokerstove and SnGPT (or other ICM tool) and it really changed the way i looked at these situations... now i think i'll have to start doing that again, because i seem to have forgotten a lot of what I learned.

Pokerstove is amazing to start to wrap your head around odds, which in the end help you determine + - ev.

you can profitably call atc with 2:1 odds (and we have more than that here)

I think if we had a little bit more chips here we can fold. Say like 5000 or so. But with our stack now we have to call. It's +EV and we gain valuable FE.

why would we fold with a bigger stack, that's only more encouraging, it's a +ev play why would we pass it up

The theory goes that by preserving our fold equity we can shove in LP for much more cev than the slight edge by calling here (and losing our FE most the time).

Yes. This.

this is a huge +cev spot (775 chips, which would increase our stack by 16% if we are 5000), whether or not its more +tev to call this or fold and shove the next hands can't really be decided (or not easily enough for me to try it)

ok I think I know, but I'm still a fishy donky newby.... so maybe you can clearify this....

when you say, "+teV" , what exactly is that and how is it figured? I see that you mention both CeV and TeV, (and not $eV) in your post.

is that some kind of new expected value (new to me anyway), the overall tournament expected value?

if so, would you mind giving me a short example of the math, so I can burn it into my brain. (like a damn branding iron....LOL)

if I read this is in one David Sklansky's books and I forgot it, then shame on me.