I think this hand is a PERFECT example of what Glitlr was getting at in his 3.5k post. Obviously this spot is -EV... potentially a good -EV spot to take since it will lead to better +EV situations in the future,

BUT,! calling with 88 here is going to get us into a pot that risks our tournament life like 99% of the time. Its a -EV spot with our tournament life on the line.

If we fold here and shove wide during the next couple hands, the shoves will most likely also be -EV, but we will still have some FE and our tournament life wont necessarily be on the line.

We are close enough in stack size to the sb, that I'm not willing to see a showdown yet with the 88... Especially since we have a good chance of getting overcalled by the BB

OK-the next hand when your acting range to shove profitably is ATo+ and 77+.Assuming a 45% call in BB 30% in sb and 14% on the button. That means you can shove aprox 8% of hands. 92% of the time you get hit by the blind. Now in the BB you need AK+ and TT+ in order to call and be + ev. assuming even a decently wide range. (30%) The next hand you can shove j4+ t8o+ if its open to you when BB calls 75% which i think is even higher. Now even if you double up you only get 1400....seems like gambling for the 2.3k pot isn't horrible. Where is the better situation?

I think in game I shove this most of the time, mainly because I don't think I would have the necessary time or experience to apply the thought process that would be needed in such a close spot.

It is very interesting to read the differing points of view on this hand from good players, especially the analysis form Little John.

This worries me:

I'm assuming that in the absence of good reads spots like these are so marginal that the effect on your long term ROI would be so minor as not to worry too much about making the 'wrong' decision?

I think your ranges are off for the next hand. Calling ranges are too wide, meaning we can shove wider. We will be taking an -EV spot a lot of the time still, but not as bad as the current spot.

As well, we can do things like raise to 600 or 800 for disguise & get some extra FE some of the time.

Still working on getting my ranges right