Evening all.

Still early stages of deep stack (pre-ante) and I'm faced with this decision on the river. Does anybody else ever contemplate a call here and for what reasons? Or is it just a blatant fold without consideration?



[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $30 Buy-in (75/150 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #25712701

Hero (SB): 4,025 (26.8 bb)
BB: 6,330 (42.2 bb)
UTG+1: 2,350 (15.7 bb)
UTG+2: 5,904 (39.4 bb)
MP1: 6,039 (40.3 bb)
MP2: 2,884 (19.2 bb)
MP3: 10,343 (69 bb)
CO: 4,159 (27.7 bb)
BTN: 5,361 (35.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J Q
5 folds, CO calls 150, BTN folds, Hero completes, BB checks

Flop: (450) 5 8 J (3 players)
Hero bets 300, BB calls 300, CO calls 300

Turn: (1,350) 2 (3 players)
Hero bets 700, BB calls 700, CO calls 700

River: (3,450) 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets 3,450, CO folds


Cutoff has not done much at all so far, a couple of limps here and there. Generally weak passive. (Haven't formed a limping range for him yet)
Big blind has been most active at the table, opening regularly and isolating from time to time. TAG seems most appropriate over a small sample (this tournament only). His ISO hands have include 99 and AQ, all in position mind. Has shoved river a couple of times recently with no showdown.

Thanks forum sirs.

prefer to bet/fold than c/call.
just makes our lives easier.
also pre, can ISO vs wide limping fish.

Kinda tough spot on the river since i was a limped pot pre and the BB could have atc. Plenty of draws like 67/79/9T for villain to flat twice with, as well as hands like gutterballs or 5x / 8x that turned a FD. But obv there are bunch of hands as well that rivered two pair or the straight.

Guess it depends on whether you think villain is capable of bluffing when checked to into two opponents with less than a PSB left in their stacks when he has a busted draw or a hand with weak showdown value. If villain's been somewhat aggressive so far then i'm quite torn about whether to call or fold now. We have less than a PSB left and a decent bluffcatcher, but it seems fairly optimistic for villain to bluff in this spot in a 3way pot when he still has the weak-passive player still to act after him (also with less than a PSB).

Not sure what sizing you plan on using to b/f otr with 3450 in the pot and only 2875 left in our stack.

That's exactly my thought process Dragons_Egg I do think his value range is somewhat limited in this spot to precisely J9, 76, QT with flush draw and 98/95 with flush draw though (although even the last two are not necessarily pushing as they have showdown value and are crushed by nearly all calls baring a hero! and QT is a possible shove on turn with huge combo). Optimistic at best though even if he is mildly aggro and not certainly not a maniac.

I also do not like an ISO here. BB has been 3-betting regularly and I'm pretty sure CO is limping ALL hands including premium. He has not been limping particularly wide. Tight limper was my label with fish tenancies post flop.

Nh, 9 otr hits a lot his range, and limpers don't turn in bluff medium SDV.

Checking's good because that card improves a lot of hands in their ranges and I don't think we get called by worse that often when we shove. Foldings good because he's probably not bluffing and he's probably not putting two people in with JT.

The spot is tougher if BB checks and CO shoves.

This

Im going to throw a different idea out there for discussion. What's the benefit of a turn bet by HERO in this spot?

I think i like checking turn in this spot because I can't see many worse, already made hands calling you (JT, or J9 are the only hands that would call the second bet). So betting into two people who already called the flop is getting calls a small amount of time from draws and a large amount of time from two pairs and sets. It also tells the BB and CO that you are value betting a jack once you check the river so it exploits you on later streets.

I feel if you bet the turn on this aggressive line, you have to bet the river even though a couple draws got there. Your chip stack and SPR is too small to b/f river so that's another reason why I like pot controlling by checking turn

It's not a bet I would always make, however in this spot I feel it is the better option.

The BB is for sure isolating pre-flop with AA through 88 and AT+KJ+ That eliminates a bunch of his hands that are ahead of me. So that leaves 22, 55 and some random two pair hands with it being limped. 22 is not guaranteed to even make the turn. So would he flat the others on the flop? Possibly but he has been aggressive so far so would seem odd now. On the turn he is for sure raising them all with interest in the pot 3-handed and a few draws hanging about. I don't think he will semi-bluff often here as I don't think he has many strong draws that he'd be happy to GII against either of us.

Now the CO has not been playing many hands at all but when he does he limps. His range can be 22+ Suited connectors and Broadway hands. So he has considerably more hands that beat me in his range. A ton of them are also behind. Now in all honesty, I don't know much about his post flop game, so I work on the assumption that he will let me know when I am beat. I think the exception to that is AJ and KJ which will just call. However, I don't think he will value bet these on the river so he never puts me in a difficult spot. Combination wise from the hands he flats I'm good most of the time.

I agree that this line also turns my hand rather face up. Im ok with that. The cutoff is NEVER taking advantage. The BB might. But for it to be easily exploitable it means that I never find a call against a thinking player. Evidently im considering it and am completely capable of making it. It also means that I am never trapping here. I can adjust to people taking advantage of these spots.

I think it's a good question though and I would like to know if my thought process for this scenario is flawed. But as I say, I do not always bet the turn here.

I think I like the whole line as long as you x/f river. Villain checked his option in the BB so can have any two raggy cards that make up two pairs.

Id check flop.

Fold otr, 100% flop/turn bet