$3 Turbo 6-Man SNG (Blinds 15/30)

SB (1320)
BB (4494) VPIP 59, PFR 38, 3bet 36 (30 hands)
CO (Hero) (2370)
BTN (816)
SB posts small blind (15), BB posts big blind (30)

Hero dealt K A

PREFLOP (45)
Hero raises 75, 2 folds, BB raises 168 to 198, Hero calls 123

FLOP (411 - effective stack 2172): A 2 A
BB bets 206, Hero calls 206

TURN (823 - effective stack 1966): A 2 A 4
BB bets 412, Hero calls 412

RIVER (1647 - effective stack 1554): A 2 A 4 3
BB checks, Hero ????

My thinking.

Preflop I just flat the 3-bet as I don't like 4bet-folding or 4-bet calling this due to ICM (this pays 65-35). I would like to keep in weaker aces. Perhaps I lack experience playing poker where a 4-bet isn't all in.

Flop and turn, I figure that he's not that likely to have hearts or any other draw. My plan is to just call and take over the betting if he slows down, otherwise we are on pace to get it all in so there is no reason to raise.

River is tricky. I don't see why he should have a 5, but the heart draw has got there as well as some full house possibilities. It doesn't seem to make much sense for villain to trap as I look like someone who's going to check behind this scary board. His action looks like a weaker Ace however I think that will still call a jam. There is only one A left though. Because of ICM we need to be good if called about 70% of the time.

I almost never play on a site allowing HUDs so it didn't occur to me to check villain's stats in game

Comments welcome on my thought process and also actions at any point in the hand.

I'd 4b to about 480 and call shove, certainly vs this guy and readless I think it's fine too at this buyin level.

River is a decision between betting small (500ish) or jamming I think. Bet small gets value from his Ax and big pp that he can't bring himself to fold (he seems aggro enough to keep valuebetting these ott) and some small % of the time you might induce bluff shoves. This runout can slow villain down on river with set/2p/straight, small bet means we don't stack ourselves versus these hands.

Re stats
You have 60 hands on villain so his 3bet stats are unreliable.
With a small sample size, a 3bet of 36% could just be 1 in 3 opportunities.
You need to see how many hands he actually 3bet or check the detail on that stat to help range him.

Preflop
The blinds are low, you have position, a hand that can flop well, and you're against a loose opponent who may be 3betting wide.
I flat here, as I don't see the need to build a huge pot with the blinds this low

River
By the way you played the hand, villain has to know you have an Ace or a FD that just hit.
You called his 3bet and turn bets so he canrange you to a high Ace,22, KQhh or similar. **

His turn bet indicates he either has the case Ace, or is trying to set the price with a FD.

I agree his hand looks very like A-rag but I'm always wary when a seemingly aggressive player suddenly slows down.
I'd probably check behind.
It may be leaving value on the table, but it's still a reasonable win at this blind level.

** Assuming he's thinking and not just mashing buttons

36 percent looks like 4/11.

Results

Just mashing buttons then

and I'd check behind - shows what a nit I am

Pre flatting seems fine. I can't imagine doing anything besides flatting flop and turn, you don't need to protect against a potential 2-3 outer. River it's just so unlikely that he ever has you beat given he 3b pre, and (yes I saw results) lots of weak opponents will not be looking to fold their pocket pairs here so I would always just jam, even if it happened to be for more than pot.

I'd call pre as well as I don't like to get all my money in on a flip early when the stacks are deep (especially if you are playing against opponents that you know you have an edge over - why reduce this to a flip when it isn't necessary?).

Call flop and call river (these donk bets are often a draw but I think you simply can't be afraid of KQhh or KJhh or whatever a plausible fish/maniac would 3-bet with preflop), as raising would just chase him away (even he would know that a raise screams ace!). When the heart hits and he checks I think you have him beat more than 70% of the time. You called preflop, called flop and called turn. I can't see him not jamming hearts, 55 (what other 5 can he have? A5?) or A4. At this point I'd probably put him on middle pocket pairs, perhaps JJ/QQ/KK, something he can't and won't let go of but something he would rather check and see if it's good on the river.

I would think I'm almost certainly good here and jam. I agree with sippin_criss on the overbet jamming. I often do it as the opponents often just pay me off. Don't know if it's the optimal play in the long run though ...

Well, the thing is, if we are sure we are good, would a smaller bet like 518 get called 3x as often as the big bet of 1554?

I'm pretty sure the answer to that is "no" in this spot.