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.40 turbo - EV conundrum/bubble play .40 turbo - EV conundrum/bubble play

10-25-2008 , 11:51 PM
Poker Stars $3.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds + t25 - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: t9070
Hero (CO): t4620
BTN: t375
SB: t935

Pre Flop: (t400) Hero is CO with T A
Hero raises to t600, 2 folds, BB raises to t9045 all in, Hero calls t3995 all in

Flop: (t9390) 8 Q 6 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: (t9390) K (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t9390) 4 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t9390
BB shows 8 Q (two pair, Queens and Eights)
Hero shows T A (high card Ace)
BB wins t9390

OK... so the BB/big stack is a guy I notice is playing 16 tables. The guy on the button is sitting out and has been since we were about 7handed. I know that in one more rotation maybe 2 the guy sitting out is blinded out of the game and I'm in the money... so just waiting til I'm in the money is +EV yes right. Well I think the big stack is raising here with any 2 cards... what do you think? Is me calling the all-in +EV?

Would you call here or make sure you see the money no matter your stack size? I guess part of me is playing for 1st everytime I play so I thought this was a no brainer, but now that he lucked out I'm disappointed in my play. Not to mention the other small stack is very small as well at this time. /sigh

I think I have learned my lesson but please share your insight!
.40 turbo - EV conundrum/bubble play Quote
10-26-2008 , 12:09 AM
The only hand you can play profitably here is ... AA

You lose a scary amount of equity by playing any other hand agains the big stack. Fold and you maintain a solid chance of getting HU with a view to winning.
.40 turbo - EV conundrum/bubble play Quote
10-26-2008 , 12:21 AM
The big stack actually doubled up thru me 2 or 3 hands before this one so I'm pretty disappointed but yes I think I understand I need to always fold this.

Thanks for the input!
.40 turbo - EV conundrum/bubble play Quote
10-26-2008 , 05:41 AM
EZ fold to shove.
.40 turbo - EV conundrum/bubble play Quote
10-26-2008 , 12:22 PM
Wow bad play, lol.. As said; no matter what is a shove in this spot -EV!! really please explain why you make the call, doooonk..
.40 turbo - EV conundrum/bubble play Quote
10-26-2008 , 12:27 PM
The raise as blind steal is ok, but after he shoves over you, insta-fold. This is even if you knew what cards he had, BTW.
.40 turbo - EV conundrum/bubble play Quote
10-26-2008 , 02:41 PM
ill try to put this in perspective for you. Let's say early on in a sng you move all in with 50 100 from utg for 10BBs with AK and some idiot calls you with JTo in the BB. You think, oh man, what an idiot. Calling with AT on the bubble here, is seriously in the ballpark of like 20-30x worse. You're basically lighting your money on fire.
.40 turbo - EV conundrum/bubble play Quote
10-26-2008 , 02:45 PM
OP you need to learn A) ICM, and B) understand how much virtually guaranteed equity from 3rd and 2nd place finishes you're putting on the line for a small gain in chips/1st place equity. Playing for first is mind bottlingly horrible here.

It can be understandably hard to fold the best hand though.
.40 turbo - EV conundrum/bubble play Quote
10-26-2008 , 11:39 PM
Yeah I know I'm pretty sure I have learned my lesson. I'm 97% sure I have his range crushed, but the situation dictates that I fold, and yes I understand ICM, but in the seconds I had to make the decision it seemed like I was for sure making the right one... just wish I had taken more time to make the decision because instantly I was pissed and sure it was wrong, and then his 2 cards hit and sealed it. Just sucks.

Thanks for all the input guys.
.40 turbo - EV conundrum/bubble play Quote

      
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