from what I've read on Bonds posts he likes to use an aggressive and creative post flop strategy...He is good at reading board texrures and deciding "what the hero can't call" and playing postion well...I would have a hard time folding here against him

edit: before I read the responses...also most of the spots I had read were live play ones...according to Mr. Bond he plays nittier online...still....

The Bugs Bunny Death Valley Cattle Head is telling me "You'll be sorrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyy" so we're WB here.

First, Villain flatted less than 3bb in CO with Decent stack SB yet to act so I don't see him doing this with BPP and potentially having 2 villains outflop him. I can see this being 56, 55, 66, 99 or 78 -- but not diamonds. My gut feeling is that he flats this Flop on a diamond draw. It feels like he hit the Flop big time and is looking to build a pot.

He probably has us on a range that includes AdKd or TT+ with at least one diamond and that does not seem to concern him. He is discounting that we played a SPP and flopped a set because we lead out here and there wouldn't be many hands Villain could have where we'd be wrong to do that.

I should also say that it could be Bond or it could be my Aunt Esther, either way I play the hand the same way. You can't make good decision with your scrotum all shrunken.

My Aunt Esther was absolutely ruthless at the card table and told me "there are no friends in cards" What a sweet lady!

We all admit? I think (and from what I can tell most others do too) that his range is equally weighted toward sets/2p, draws and some other random hands. So, if you want to start over with your thoughts on why call/eval is worse than pushing I'm all ears. Probably not necessary though since I outlined the problems with calling against a strong TAG in my post. Either way its not the most spewtastic advice you've ever heard.
See, never folding an overpair on a drawy board works great when everyone is sitting 10-20BB effective, but when you're 40-60bb not so much (because you are mostly crushed when you get called) which is what makes this a challenging hand.

Jarid

QQ-AA would have re-raised you pre... If he's sitting on a set or 78, good for him. Ship it.

He's a TAG but I'm not letting go here.

I think we're getting off track here. The question here is a basic question of how much of a classic TAG is Bond playing as here?


If he's playing super-solid basic TAG play - then online or not, yeah we should really be folding JJ here without too much of a hesitation

If he's playing looser, more creatively, more aggressively or any other way that deviates from super-solid ABC TAG strategy, then yeah we can probably call or shove over ok.

"If he's playing looser, more creatively, more aggressively or any other way that deviates from super-solid ABC TAG strategy, then yeah we can probably call or shove over ok."

Bond's general rep seems to be 'Good TAG' so I dont think we should assume anything different in this hand. I could be wrong but I dont think he is going to start donking it up just because its low stakes and not a 10k event. It is a $22 tourney, but also a re-buy so I'm sure the prize pool while not life altering isnt chump change. Finally, if anything he may be liable to play more straightforward, for all the reasons straightforward TAG works at low stakes.

Jarid

I agree Jard - I was commenting to those saying we should shove (and a few that admitted his TAG status then said shove)

"(and a few that admitted his TAG status then said shove)"

I don't think they are looking close enough at the stacks. (or are just ZOMG overpair and not thinking about how to play this well.)

Jarid

Im the first to admit I played this hand worse than a trainwreck, and really wished i could have just folded the flop.

It's called "learning" and we all do it all the time!

This

being that hes not an idiot rather the contrary, im folding this 100% of the time 100% no way hes raising with something u beat unless u have a ridiculous image.

So if we're going to fold an overpair whenever raised on the flop by our villian, because we assume he's tight, but only agreessive with a made hand, and only bet's with better and never a draw/combo draw, pair and a draw, and never raises lesser pairs when he puts us on 2 big cards... why are we playing a pot against him in the first place? Why would we even lead out?

That's not it.

It's a known, thinking Villain and based upon the action, range of hands and gut feeling it tallies to we're WB here.

Now, it's possible that he flatted PF and is bluffing us off a hand with air. If so, good for him!

But the preponderance of the action and evidence tells me it's far more likely than not that we're WB.

because this doesnt happened everytime.

Yes... It does .... I give him more credit I guess... or maybe different credit based on name only. That he will continue to beat us up with pos and that he's more than happy to do this with a combo draw/pair and draw.

Tell you what... maybe you're right ... but I wouldn't fold the next one if I did fold this one and I wouldn't make this a standard "easy fold".

PS I thnik we can firmly remove QQ KK AA AK from his range the majority of the time here.

We would have been raised PRF by these hands. It's becasue he's a tAG I'm ruling them out.

Either way... Bond should 3 bet more often apparently.

We have the worst overpair. Its like TPWK (we go broke with AA because JJ-KK are in Bond's re-reasing range on this flop). But with JJ, unless he is doing this with Tx (doubtful as I believe Bond would call with that besides if he has a FD as well).

Paging Bond.... show/tell one time?

JJ isn't a fold every time, it is against Bond because as a random he will _not_ raise the flop with worse hands that don't have a good draw any significant portion of the time

Of course this is very exploitable but it doesn't matter because there's no way Bond assumes a random to fold an overpair

I'd have to look it up to be sure, but i'm like 95% I had AA here.

Edit:
To give people an idea of my range preflop:

All pairs (though TT-KK gets reraised a ton, AA sometimes)

ATs+ (sometimes I fold the AT if villain is tight), AJ+ (again, sometimes I fold the AJ.)

KQs. sometimes KJs, some suited connectors like 78s, 98s, T9s. Stacks aren't that deep or anything so I can't flat super wide here against MP1 raiser.

this is pretty disgusting given that he has no real reason to get out of line here with like 45bbs after calling the raise. you've shown pretty good strength with your near PSB and i doubt he has any reason at this point to try to fold out TT+ which you could definitely have.

good players like bond, in general, would pick a better spot to be aggressive here without a made hand, i think. to me his range is weighted way more towards a set/overpair than any kind of drawy hand.

If we go by OP's range (preflop 77-JJ, KQs, AJs [did you think he wouldn't flat AJs here?], on this flop his raising range might be JcJs,TT-99,AdJd,KdQd,) then this is a jam with him folding 7 of his possible holdings (TT, JcJs) and calling with 5 (99, AdJd, KdQd). He'd be getting 2.1:1, so he's correct to call with the FD. It's more +EV if he folds the FD's.
(7/12)(6400) = 3733
(5/12)(14,400)(.22) = 1320
(5/12)(-8000)(.78) = -2600 for a total EV of 2453

If you throw 66 and 55 into his raising range here, then you have 6 more holdings he would call with, changing things to....
(7/18)(6400) = 2489
(11/18)(14,400)(.167) = 1470
(11/18)(-8000)(.833) = -4072 for a total EV of -113.
If he folds his FD's thinking your draws to a boat make it -EV for him (I don't know which would be best from his point of view so I'm giving both options), then it becomes
(9/18)(6400) = 3200
(9/18)(14,400)(.133) = 958
(9/18)(-8000)(.867) = -3468 for a total EV of 690.
Obviously no read is going to be perfect, so it's probably somewhere in the middle, and I think this is a push. If he's not raising TT here then it's an easy fold.

I hate calling.

What confuses me, though, is that the size of his raise gives you pot odds of 2.9:1... This gets a bit of a wtf out of me because if he has a set or 2 pair here, why is he going to give us such good odds on such a draw-heavy board? Since we opened pf our holdings could be right in the thick of this flop. Is this a standard raise size? Any particular reason you might raise this size, Bond?