Middle stage of 15k gtd $22 rebuy/add-on at OnGame. I was moved to the table about an orbit before this hand showed up. Had not been involved in any pots yet. OPR gives villain 162% ROI and 15% ITM over 112 games last 120. Seems solid to me. Villain has opened for 3x once from MP2 and took it down pre. Otherwise no reads. Blinds are at 500/1000, no ante.

Known players:
UTG: $28105.00
UTG+1: $11813.00
MP1: $18299.00
MP2: $5530.00
CO: $35508.00
BTN: $39275.00
SB: $13030.00
Hero: $43010.00

Texas Hold'em NL100000 (8 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Ongame Hand Converter v0.2.5 by Life is a Bug.

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q
5 folds, BTN raises to $3000.00, SB folds, Hero calls $2000.00.

Flop: ($6500.00) K, 7, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks.

Turn: ($6500.00) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $5000.00, BTN calls $5000.00.

River: ($16500.00) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $9000.00, Hero pukes...

I'm having a really hard time putting villain on a hand here. My initial thoughts were mid PP, set, AsXs, A5, busto spades or air. After giving it more thought i found mid PP unlikely, as villain would have checked behind most of the time. A slowplayed set is possible, though I'd expect villain to pop turn as the FD arrives and he/she needs more value. Now the ace combos are all likely, and the river bet fits these quite well IMO. I'm not finding missed spades very likely, as I'm holding two of them and villain has incorrect odds to call turn, thus should be semi bluff raising or folding. Air float seems wierd as well. River bet basicly looks pretty valueish to me, and made me think that I was beat. I'm honestly having a hard time seeing his bluff frequency matching pot odds. How solid is my analysis here? I'm I missing something?

Comments on line would be great. I'm obv going for the flop c/r, then leading turn with a solid bet as villain checked flop behind and my hand can take a lot of heat in this spot. I wasn't really considering blocking river. Should I have been? River pretty much put me off and I must admit I really did't have a plan for this scenario

Thanks for all replies!

I 3bet preflop to like 7700
As played, I sometimes donk the flop, put the pressure on him. C/R is fine for an expected cbet though
Turn and river look standard to me, he could very well show up with Axs, 44 or 77 with that line.

You didn't give him the odds to chase the flush on the river, but does he know that?

Incidentally, you got outdrawn with an A, not counterfeited

Counterfeit is say holding A9 and the board goes 5678 then the river is a 9
Or you got 88 and the board goes JT4TJ, your bottom pair are useless

I'm only 3-betting KQ preflop with a read on villain. Donking flop was an option, but the board was dry enough to risk him checking behind IMO.

So you fold em?

From his OPR stats I would say yes.

Accepted. Me being an PLO8 addict should know the terminology

Yes I fold, I can't think of anything you beat that he calls the turn with if you say his OPR is good.

I might 3bet preflop to 7500, specially if villain is a winning players which might mean he is opening wide.
As played I like the check on the flop.
I also like the turn.
The river is tough I must admit,what can he have that didnt cbet and then called the turn, and then bet the river...only a set makes sense to me...maybe this is a pot odds call though, I guess I flip a coin and call if it comes heads.

Yes given the odds of almost 3:1 it's a pretty close decision. A set is possible, but villain flatting turn is bad IMO, and villain being solid should be raising here.

I'm having a hard time recognizing when to block rivers, is this possible spot for a small block bet of say 6k? Obv, i would fold to any raise.

i think just calling here is bad when your way ahead of villains range as he's likely opening v light because of his winning stats

as played i donk the flop for like 2k and he'll prob raise with near ATC to like 6k

if you call pot = 18500 with 30k effective stacks

turn bet just over half and get it in on any river as your commited.

stacks are awkward here so i would prob bloat the pot and raise to 13k and shove any flop pushing 26k into a 27k pot

I like a 3 bet pre flop here and i prolly call a shove too.

Villain opens from the button and he should be doing this with almost atc
We need to send a message out sooner rather than later that our blinds are not there to be taken whenever someone fancies them.

So i reraise to like 12500 and put him in on most flops.
If (and i suspect it wont) gets that far.

Allright to wrap it up, I actually agree I should have 3-bet 12k-ish pre, and hammered as good as any flop. Villains range is wide enough for this to be pretty massively +cEV IMO. As played I take it as my line was fine up to river.

I ended up calling his river bet, as I often do in these really close WTF spots (leak?). Anyway, surprise, surprise! Villain shows 55 for missed open ender. What do you know.

So... (*brags it up*)
Hero goes on to take down tourney for 3.75k. Ship it!

Thanks for the great responses.