Heyohiha! I have a pretty basic question but I just can't figure it out by myself.

SB plays 23/14 over 36 hands |
------------------------------|- Both filtered to 5-3 handed.
BB plays 35/23 over 33 hands |

So should this be a raise? Yeah we do have 17BBs so a stack which is still playable but we have a pretty big stack edge over the shorty and 33 won't play so well postflop if we get called.

I would hate to fire a cbet on flop and then let it go either to a raise or to a float. Both of these scenarios are quite possible vs the players in the blinds.



Thanks for the replies.

If you are not confident on how to play this hand post flop then you should fold, especially with a player sitting with ~10bbs.

However this is the easiest raise I have ever seen, if either of the blinds had a high 3 bet % I would consider folding but other than that I'd raise to 325-360 and play the hand from there. The SB should be super tight if they know what they are doing with the only player that covers them behind them and if they lose a big one to you they risk going from 2nd stack to bubble. The BB should realize you can't stand a shove most of the time if he thinks you have a normal button open range in this spot, and should be three bet shipping super wide. That said he probbaly isn't going to figure it out.

Raise imo.

Raise and c/f really bad flops imo (KJ8ssh for example).

Your raise is close to immediately profitable. The way to estimate this would be to take the chance that you get called by the SB (roughly vpip), use this to determine the chance that SB folds and multiply that by the chance BB calls. This is your net chance of being called.

So for example, 23% chance of being called by the SB, and a 77% chance of getting through times the 35% chance that BB comes along after the SB folds nets a 27% chance of SB fold to BB call. So total chance of getting though is roughly 50%. If you are wagering ~380 to win 620 (the blinds + your raise), then you need the steal to be successful 61% to be immediately profitable. There will of course be some good boards where we can stack off on (when we have sets) and good boards (Axxr) to cbet where our cbet will make the initial raise more profitable.

I'm of course not suggesting we should be way out of line, but this can help in understanding how much equity we need to have postflop on various boards to make a steal here.

Raisy daisy.

With stack sizes and your position I fold without a second thought. Even more inclined to fold if either SB or BB knows how to own the bubble and will be re-stealing often.

Do you have a read on how the players in the blinds react to a steal raise? If not then you should get that stat in your HUD ASAP. As played I am making a 2 1/2 x BB raise here most of the time and then evaluating. Folding here seems too nitty for sure.

I am really scratching my head because to be honest this just doesn't seem like a difficult hand at all.

Aright thanks for the replies.

Thanks guys thanks Regrets. Was quite enlightening

Yeah I saw the tendency of getting calls from the blinds in scenarios like these.

Another question: What if we would pass 4 BBs from our stack to the BB?