6 left, pay jump to 5th.

We call an LJ min-raise from BU with 32bb effective, BB calls

Flop comes 6h 3s Qs. Pot 7bb

Checks to us, we bet half-pot (for both protection and value from the draws). BB calls, LJ folds

Turn comes 2s. Pot 14.5bb

BB donks just under half pot. Hero?

Btw, we have KQs cc. That might help.

Need to see all stacks and pay amounts.

There weren't any super-shorties, maybe one stack around 20bb and the next shortest was similar to ours.

Can't remember payouts but there was a fairly significant jump from 6th to 5th

Typically, I put them on one spade and pair and jam.

Would be a sneaky preflop call with A queen with the ace of spades, though possible.

Without read on my opponent, I think I am ahead. Without a bunch of shorties where you really jepordize a third place finish, I think you are over thinking ICM from 6th to 5th.

I wasn't over-thinking it, just trying to reply to your question about payouts.

What pair/backdoor fd does BB continue with otf facing a half-pot bet oop in a mw pot and particularly with our blocking Qx?

I mean Qx with X being a spade is possible but if X was nutted (good enough to donk an s turn) then we'd likely have seen a 3bet pre

10-10, 9-9, 8-8a
Q-J-10-8
J-J, Q-Q, K-k, A-A (sneakily played)
A-Q (sneakily played)
A-K (sneakily played)
6-6 or 3-3 that just got aggravated the flush card hit
A-6 or A-3
any flush that he made, any 4-5 with a spade

Not knowing the player, I discount most flushes betting the turn

Maybe he is a paranoid type and led the 8 flush afraid you would draw out of him at a final table.

Reverse engineer it, would he lead the flush on the turn? If we lean no, then I think you are ahead of his range. If we lean yes, then HOUSTON, we have a problem.

Anyway, I am discounting ICM issues given stack dynamics and looking at the hand in the vacuum, given stack sizes you laid out. I do not believe this has anything to do with ICM and you should play the hand for it's own sake. Simply put, if I think I'm ahead more than 55% of the time, I'm jamming. If I'm behind 46% or more of the time, I'm mucking.

Why are you shoving rather than calling?

It's an ICM spot when our chip equity equals 4th-5th and this spot potentially leaves us 6th

And yes I believe he'd lead out with a flush ott. The 2s nulls our aggression and he'd want to build the pot. Hence a very callable sizing when considering the kind of hand we'd lead the flop with. Conversely, he knows that the 2s hits his flop continue range perfectly and therefore it's an ideal bluff spot

believe me 54 is a thing here

Of course? That's why the 2s hits his range so perfectly. He has flushes, straights, sets and two pair. It's the ideal bluff spot but I felt his sizing was weighted toward value

If you believe his sizing is towards value, you should fold.

You are the player and every final table and dynamic has its own feel.

And, I'm shoving instead of calling as I feel I can't fold any river after putting this call in.

I'd rather knock out his bluffs then have to worry about another scare card.

That sounds exactly like my sort of reasoning. Pio (as far as I could program it for a spot like this) calls 100% ott and calls most river ships barring a spade, sometimes an ace and a couple other cards that I can't remember. I was never shoving turn and didn't like the call for the exact reason you mention about not being able to fold most rivers. I actually opted to fold and wait for a better spot that seems less like a shot in the dark. I felt my hand was pretty much face-up yet he still chose a less than half-pot donk sizing ott, which theoretically shouldn't put me off calling.

Btw, loving the relevant input Smudger

Seems that pio wants his buffs to barrel again.

And, I suppose if he is bluffing turn he has no choice but to bluff river, so I see where pio is coming with the flat.

I suppose I'll have to consider flatting more in these spots. I usually just shove. Probably not optimal.

I suppose you'll get outdrawn less often than you drastically chip-up (assuming V is at most semi-bluffing and barrels off on a brick)

Yeah, if I'm going to play, I think PIO is right. Flatting is better than shoving. But, you have to have the courage to call the all in barrell on the river.

I think that SPR would dictate we call everything but a spade river

Thinking about it. If we shove will villain have to call all spades or would he dump
8s with 8 of spades. If we can get him off some spades shoving is preferable. If he is now committed flatting is better.

Who knows. Shoving is the high variance play and not something I'd consider, let alone at this stage of the tournament - if I wanted to straight gamble then I'd play roulette or whatever. It's a pure call spot but my feel in the moment is that V had it - not a GTO line but (rightly or wrongly) exploitatively: if V is at all theory savvy then he should know I'm 100% calling that sizing with anything I've bet the flop with multi-way, so why would he use it to bluff?

Call turn. Reevaluate on river. I think people generally underbluff the river, so if he jams it in I would lean towards folding.

I think shoving would be a big mistake

There is a difference in my game and yours, though. I would have leaned fold or 3 bet pre. I don’t usually find myself in these situations 6 handed with 32 big blinds. Frankly, I probably fold pre. I almost never flat pre. What does pio say about our preflop decision?

As I think about this hand, I would probably not have to face the decision you did. Almost never. 3 betting folding to a jam or just folding pre with my 32 big blinds. Interesting to evaluate the action, but I think you put yourself in a tough spot to begin with with shoddy preflop play. Look, we can easily fold and watch the action, or three bet it and take control of the pot. Flatting was worst decision with your holding.

I’d rather flat with a more binary hand, like 7s

Flatting is the best play imo, although 3betting is an option—folding is not. One of the benefits of flatting is that it keeps hands that we have dominated in the pot (both LJ and the blinds). It’s particularly good to flat if the blinds are weak. Blinds will call with soooo many hands that we crush and with our stack size we can get a double.

I’m surprised you’re advocating a fold here, but as you said, you play a different style than others and it’s ok to disagree. Although we agree that 7s are a flat