Starting Stack: 6k
3rd round: 75/150
30min rounds

Table is generally inexperienced, mostly passive, no one terribly loose. My image is slightly aggressive, but not wild.

Approx relevant stacks:
UTG+3: 5500
Cutoff (Hero): 5200
Button: ~4000
SB: ~4000
BB: ~7000

Action:
Folded to UTG+3
UTG+3 limps
Folded to Cutoff (Hero): AK
Cutoff raises to 700
Button folds
SB calls
BB folds
UTG+3 calls

Flop: 853
Pot: 2250

SB checks
UTG+3 checks
Hero bets 1100
SB folds
UTG+3 calls

Turn: 4
Pot: 4450

UTG+3 checks

4450 pot with 3400 behind. Shove, smaller raise, check? And of course, why? Also, is c-bet a mistake on the flop?

(First strategy post, let me know if I missed anything).

make it more like 550 pre,
as played c-bet flop, shuv turn vs inexperiecned players ,loads of FE

I'm not sure I like a push here - BECAUSE - V seems like a station. I mean, he just called your flop bet when clearly folding or shoving are much better options. Thus, you may need to discount the FE more than normal (but NOT to 0!).

You have a bazillion outs here - 6 overs, 4 dueces, and 9 FD cards (net 7 to eliminate double counting). How has V played in earlier hands? If he keeps calling, I'm taking a free card here a lot and re-evaluating on the river. Keep in mind that just because they are listed as "generally inexperienced, mostly passive" doesn't mean that they aren't also calling stations. Checking here may still result in shoving river for value or for a bluff when checked to again.

I had only seen him in one other hand, and indeed if anything that hand should have led me to think he is a station. Though it is hard to read much from that hand:

Calling villain from the above hand Station, and calling the other player in this hand Maniac:
Blinds 50/100
Maniac limps from early position
Station in the cutoff raises to 300
Button calls. Blinds fold.
Maniac raises to 2500 (!) leaving 2025 behind. Station barely has him covered.
Station thinks for a long time, then flats!
Flop came Kxx.
Maniac shoves. Station calls.
Maniac shows A7 no pair no draw
Station shows AK.

Important to note, I named him Maniac because of this hand, he had shown no signs of being this crazy before this hand. So this would definitely lean toward Station being a station, but this was clearly a weird hand. I don't know how much I should trust a read based on the action.

Also just so no one calls BS on the numbers not adding up, Station lost most of his winning from this hand in a Top/bottom pair vs Top 2 confrontation.


So I do like your analysis here, but I am just curious if the obviousness of either of my draws edges the decision towards a push. I check and either of the flush or straight draws show up, and I don't know if my shove gets paid off. A or K I don't know if my value bet gets paid off, but I probably have to pay off a set. I think I need to go through all his possible hands, group them into similar situations, assign a percentage of likelihood, determine the most likely sequence following my turn action, then determine which play has the highest EV.

I will post the results of my analysis if anyone is interested.

I would push, since you have 10 outs against a pair and so much in the pot.