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[$20.80 DoN] AK on the bubble

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01-04-2010 , 01:22 PM

Awrimas

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 140

Ok, so UTG is raising every pot, BB is a good reg, other are randoms. What do you guys do here?

Poker Stars $20.00+$0.80 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t150/t300 Blinds + t30 - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: t1035 M = 1.64
SB: t2705 M = 4.29
BB: t1565 M = 2.48
UTG: t6595 M = 10.47
Hero (MP): t1615 M = 2.56
CO: t1485 M = 2.36

Pre Flop: (t630) Hero is MP with A

UTG raises to t900, Hero?

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01-04-2010 , 01:29 PM

DirDirDirty

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,574

Definitely a fold, you have to fold AK here no matter what his range, wiz is actually saying AA is a fold here 100% of the time.

I had everyone else folding everything but AA and 2nd stack KK+. And changed utg's action to push since you have 0 FE imo.

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01-04-2010 , 01:32 PM

Awrimas

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 140

Bah.

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01-04-2010 , 01:43 PM

Wrane

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 12,086

Quote:

Originally Posted by Awrimas

Bah.

Hm? I'm guessing you called here then? Was it a bad beat or flip?

Eh, personally I would be really hesitant here but I think folding is best. I guess the goal here is to hope that UTG continues abusing and BTN blinks.

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01-04-2010 , 01:53 PM

Rusemandingo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 14,067

It'd still be a fold if the raiser had less chips than you. The fact that you winning chips from him won't put him in any danger is why you fold every hand (except maybe AA) to him.

If you're calling allins on the bubble when you aren't an extreme shorty, which you should hardly ever do, make sure that if you win the all in that youre winning the tournament.

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01-04-2010 , 01:58 PM

Awrimas

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 140

Yeah, i kept clicking the time button and thinking. When there was like a second left, knowing i was most likely making a wrong decision, called it. I was somehow thinking the shortstack(s) won't have any problems doubling up, when UTG was shoving that light, but still it obviously wasn't worth calling. UTG called with A4 but it doesn't really matter.

Anyway, i was kind of sure i was supposed so call UTG's 100% range with KK. And had no doubts about AA. Dirty proved me wrong again.

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01-04-2010 , 03:09 PM

nicegame

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 637

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirDirDirty

Definitely a fold, you have to fold AK here no matter what his range, wiz is actually saying AA is a fold here 100% of the time.

It's hard for me to believe that folding AA can be correct. If we call with AA we have around 80% equity of winning the hand and about the same for winning the tournament.

With 6 equal stacks our equity would be 83%, but in this case the are two bigger stacks and the short stack is not that short and quite likely might double up (as OP said, just waiting for a good hand to call the big stack shoves). What does Wiz say that the equity of folding is?

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01-04-2010 , 03:28 PM

Rusemandingo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 14,067

If we call with AA and win we don't go to 100% equity. We prob go up to about 93 or so. I'd say our equity is around 80% here at a min. That means we're risking 80% to gain 13%. Unless we're gonna be 8 to 1.3 favorites or 86% favs, we cant make this call. I don't think we'd be that big of a fav and I think 80% might be lowballing our current equity. Unless it's a sure decent gain in equity, I like to pass and give other people the chance to make a mistake.

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01-05-2010 , 06:31 AM

alexstat

veteran

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 3,442

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rusemandingo

+1

I'm always for allowing others to win the tournament for us. Just because the BB is good doesn't mean that he will out bubble you. You would be making him a much better player than you by risking your tournament while he sits back and watches you risk your game. This is what he wants. Use your edge he is shorter and there is a shorty on the button, both are to your right hitting the blinds before you every time. Since the big stack is raising every pot they have been robbed of their shoves. Be patient as they both must win an all in for you to lose.

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01-05-2010 , 07:57 AM

#10

Awrimas

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 140

I wasn't saying BB was a good reg, and he had some kind of advatange against me. Described every oponent, so you could form a better view on the table, that's it.

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01-05-2010 , 10:03 AM

#11

DirDirDirty

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,574

Quote:

Originally Posted by Awrimas

Ok, so UTG is raising every pot, BB is a good reg, other are randoms. What do you guys do here?

Poker Stars $20.00+$0.80 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t150/t300 Blinds + t30 - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: t1035 M = 1.64
SB: t2705 M = 4.29
BB: t1565 M = 2.48
UTG: t6595 M = 10.47
Hero (MP): t1615 M = 2.56
CO: t1485 M = 2.36

Pre Flop: (t630) Hero is MP with A

UTG raises to t900, Hero?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Awrimas

I wasn't saying BB was a good reg, and he had some kind of advatange against me. Described every oponent, so you could form a better view on the table, that's it.

wat?

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01-05-2010 , 11:08 PM

#12

alexstat

veteran

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 3,442

wat?

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01-05-2010 , 11:10 PM

#13

Darkhours

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 317

shove. If you live near snow, shovel. No brainer.

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