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$2 99 on Bubble facing raise

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07-05-2009 , 06:30 PM

WiltonC

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 36

No specific stats on villain but I'd estimate he was raising at least 60% of pots so figured to be ahead of his range. As it turns out I was ahead but only slightly. Two questions - is the push correct? and if I could have seen his cards would a push be correct?

Full Tilt Poker $2 + $0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40/t80 Blinds - 3 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: t2665 M = 22.21
SB: t3945 M = 32.88
Hero (BB): t2390 M = 19.92

Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is BB with 9

1 fold, SB raises to t240, Hero raises to t2390 all in, SB calls t2150

Flop: (t4780) T

Turn: (t4780) 7

River: (t4780) Q

Final Pot: t4780
SB shows J

(a straight, Ace high)
Hero shows 9

(two pair, Queens and Nines)
SB wins t4780

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07-05-2009 , 06:58 PM

Feynman

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 22

The shove is clearly correct. I think with 3 players, the bubble is burst. Hard to say whether it's a correct move if you could see his cards. He's clearly calling here with A-J, and part of why you push is to pick up his raise when he's raising with weak hands. However, you are a slight favorite here, and the pot odds make this the correct play mathematically, even if you knew he was gonna call.

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07-05-2009 , 07:03 PM

UhtredTheUgly

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 334

Yup not bubble anymore. Anyway I shove 99 in this spot 110% of the time. And no you shouldn't be happy to get in a coinflip, but it's just part of his calling range. You have tons of fold equity if he's raising 60% or close to that and he might (will, in a $2)call with worse hands.

edit: 6max! Still a shove.

Last edited by UhtredTheUgly; 07-05-2009 at 07:09 PM.

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07-05-2009 , 07:06 PM

Gazillion

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 8,721

Judging by chipstacks this looks like a 6max game, no? If so, this is the bubble.

OP, plz mark your 6max threads accordingly. And yes, I shove.

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07-05-2009 , 07:19 PM

WiltonC

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 36

Sorry this was a 6max so it is the bubble (should have put that in the title, apologies).

Even though I'm a favourite here, I'm only like 52-48. And if I win there's still no guarantee I'll get in the money while if I lose I'm obviously out. Basically what I'm trying to get at is the difference between +cEv and +$Ev. Is there a way of judging this difference?

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07-05-2009 , 07:23 PM

Gazillion

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 8,721

You're a slight favourite here, but if he's calling AJ then he's also calling smaller pairs, plus you have a ton of FE with your stack. You have to consider all these factors in your decision, you can't just look at your equity vs the hand he actually showed down. You're pretty much exactly 50/50 vs his combined range of 55+/ATs+/AJ+. When you also factor in the times he folds, I find it very hard not to shove.

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07-05-2009 , 07:33 PM

WiltonC

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 36

I understand your points, but from a more general view point im wondering if its +$Ev to get it all in as a 52-48 favourite? is there any way to mathematically measure this or do you just have to use judgement?

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07-05-2009 , 07:36 PM

Gazillion

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 8,721

You're thinking about it wrong.

Look at it this way - you say villain is raising most hands, you're fairly equal in chips with the other shorter stack, you have FE vs someone whose opening range by your own estimation is 60%, you have 99 vs a laggy villain with a decent amount of dead money in the pot and a hand with great showdown value vs his range. If you're not shoving here, then what hands are you shoving with?

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07-05-2009 , 07:41 PM

WiltonC

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 36

Thinking about the hand wrong or the general concept? Am I correct in thinking there's a difference between cEv and $Ev?

Sorry the rest of your post hadn't shown when I posted this. I understand your points regarding this specific hand when villains cards are unknown. But can you tell me if there is a difference between cEv and $Ev and how this should be taken into consideration?

Thanks

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07-05-2009 , 07:45 PM

#10

Gazillion

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 8,721

You're getting too involved in what he actually had. You can't know you're going to be a 52/48, so you have to work out your equity vs his range. You say he's opening 60%. Let's say he calls a shove with 20%. That means when you shove, 66% of the time he's folding and you take the pot there and then, and 33% of the time you're 55/45 vs his range (stove 99 vs 20%). There's a huge amount of equity to be gained from shoving.

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