$2.20 bounty - QT hits TP on drawy flop - MTT Poker Strategy

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$2.20 bounty - QT hits TP on drawy flop

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12-03-2020 , 06:47 AM

Yeodan

Micro NLHE Coach

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,621

PokerStars - 30/60 Ante 9 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 163.82 BB
Hero (MP+2): 91 BB
CO: 71 BB
BTN: 105.53 BB
SB: 139.52 BB
BB: 67.7 BB
UTG: 87.02 BB
UTG+1: 114.12 BB
MP: 76.97 BB

9 players post ante of 0.15 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.85 BB) Hero has Q

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (8.85 BB, 2 players) 9

Hero checks, BTN bets 4.43 BB, Hero calls 4.43 BB

Turn: (17.72 BB, 2 players) 6

Hero checks, BTN bets 32 BB

I think I should've checked the flop, being out of position and my hand not being that strong.

The turn bet got me really confused.
Is villain just bombing it because I've capped my range by checking? Do people actually do that at lower stakes?
Or did he just hit something like 66 or T7?

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12-03-2020 , 02:17 PM

oldgoat

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,977

you did check the flop

can't call this sizing

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12-03-2020 , 03:58 PM

Yeodan

Micro NLHE Coach

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,621

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldgoat

you did check the flop

Right

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12-03-2020 , 08:18 PM

killer_kill

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 28,608

The flop check is pretty marginal. Just bet and get value from a million hands.

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12-04-2020 , 06:02 AM

Yeodan

Micro NLHE Coach

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,621

Quote:

Originally Posted by killer_kill

The flop check is pretty marginal. Just bet and get value from a million hands.

Hmm true.

If we're betting the flop here, is that just pure exploitatively or would GTO also recommend to bet OOP in this spot?

What sizing should I use then? I assume rather large, 50-80% pot?

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12-04-2020 , 07:56 AM

Captain-Hindsight

adept

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,114

Check flop is best

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12-04-2020 , 08:00 AM

Yeodan

Micro NLHE Coach

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,621

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain-Hindsight

Check flop is best

Making these types of statements without any arguments is completely useless.

Why would I trust you on this?
Even if you're right, how does stating a fact help me when I don't know the why or how behind it?

I'm 100% sure that checking the flop is not best.
It depends on the sitution.
Simple example, against a villain that is calling 100% of hands both pre and post, we want to trippel barrel huge with this hand and definitely not check ever.

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12-04-2020 , 08:07 AM

Captain-Hindsight

adept

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,114

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yeodan

I put it in a solver and check is best by a large margin. I don’t know why it’s best but that’s the answer. If you’re curious I can post the ranges I used later....

And maybe steer away from calling something “completely useless” especially when said person is trying to answer your questions and help your poker

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12-04-2020 , 09:01 AM

Yeodan

Micro NLHE Coach

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,621

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain-Hindsight

No offense intended.

GTO isn't always the best approach btw.
If your opponent is going to call way too often, betting can often be much more profitable than going with the GTO approach of checking.

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12-04-2020 , 09:08 AM

#10

Captain-Hindsight

adept

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,114

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yeodan

No offense intended.

GTO isn't always the best approach btw.
If your opponent is going to call way too often, betting can often be much more profitable than going with the GTO approach of checking.

Do you have any reads on V that would make you think that betting is better here?

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12-04-2020 , 09:11 AM

#11

Yeodan

Micro NLHE Coach

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 3,621

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain-Hindsight

Do you have any reads on V that would make you think that betting is better here?

It's a small stakes tournament, played mostly by casual players or learning players, who tend to call too often.

killer_kill suggested betting instead of checking, so I was just wondering if an exploitative bet is better here against the SSMTT pool than a GTO check

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12-08-2020 , 02:42 PM

#12

HankGrill

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 42

Folding turn.

I'm betting flop more often than not, but checking definitely viable. Betting all overpairs, KQ+ and all sets and straights as well as a bunch of draws. I probably bet 40%-50% pot though, and no idea if that sizing is correct. The more bets I find the smaller I'm betting.

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