2.2/180 KK facing huge donk bet on wet board - MTT Poker Strategy

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2.2/180 KK facing huge donk bet on wet board

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09-09-2010 , 08:44 PM

wedgienator

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 33

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $300(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($9,045)
BB ($4,265)
UTG ($3,330)
UTG+1 ($1,750)
CO ($5,455)
Hero ($5,205)

Dealt to Hero K

, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $750, SB calls $600, fold

FLOP ($1,950) 9

SB bets $3,000, Hero ???

Easy fold/shove?

Villain is 42/8/4.0 over a tiny sample (12 hands).

Is PFR of 2.5x > 3 here?

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09-09-2010 , 09:45 PM

NoCompany

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 38

That depends on opponent. I would easy exclude sets, cuz hes call really dont stick with rule of 5 & 10, but why is he betting so much? With made flush? - NO! I think hes on some kind of a draw, could be SFD or A9 with ace of clubs. If your willing to gamble and flip a coin u should Shove, if your not then Fold. And if you have any reason to think that he could have played sets or flushes the same way, than it is an easy Fold. At best its just a coinflip.

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09-09-2010 , 10:11 PM

Dr_Wonderful

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 2,217

pretty strange, but I'm never getting away here in a 2.2. Just jam and take a note.

NoCompany, if we're at a coinflip on this flop it'd be a miserable fold.

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09-09-2010 , 10:32 PM

bs_jayhawk

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,645

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoCompany

No, no, and no. At best we have him absolutely crushed. The "rule of 5 & 10" does not apply anywhere here. Villains at this level do not understand this sort of thinking.

There is already 2,000 in the pot on the flop. If we are a coinflip, getting it in here is hugely profitable!

You have an over-pair and you are playing in a 2.20 tournament. Just call.

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09-09-2010 , 11:15 PM

sweet wake

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 34

Your hand is under-respesented here,it looks like a standard pre flop steal from dealer button. Villain granted hand sample is small but he has the stats of a potential fish. Given this info, plus its a $2.20 180man and the fact he bets so much on flop you are look at facing 9x,8x no club hands alot of the time, your well ahead of this range, CALL.

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09-10-2010 , 02:40 AM

gitrjoda

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 522

Just because its the 2.20/180, he can have so many hands you beat. top pairs, high flush draws, inside straight draws with mid flush draws, mid pair and straight draw, etc. And the quicker villain bets this amount, the more likely you are ahead.

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09-10-2010 , 02:55 AM

Tejch10

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 33

I think you can't call the flop bet. You need to get it in and hope club does not hit. There are just so many hands that you have beat here way to often. That is a huge donk lead and may have some sort of pair with fd or maybe sd/fd. But the key here is to fade. GL

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09-10-2010 , 03:05 AM

bs_jayhawk

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,645

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tejch10

I think you can't call the flop bet. You need to get it in and hope club does not hit. There are just so many hands that you have beat here way to often. That is a huge donk lead and may have some sort of pair with fd or maybe sd/fd. But the key here is to fade. GL

i totally agree. Sorry when i said "just call", i meant go allin. If you call you are committed anyway so I guess i thought that the allin was implied.

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09-10-2010 , 03:07 AM

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

doubt thats anything but a get it in spot in every BI.

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09-11-2010 , 11:46 PM

#10

Fainoadonkey

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 654

nice call ul

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09-12-2010 , 12:39 AM

#11

TeamTrousers

talks the talk

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 12,894

never folding here

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