Not too many reads yet, but he's running 47/10 over just 30 hands, but has a 66% limp/fold over that sample & super low aggression on the flop & turn.

Once he limps, and everyone has folded to me, obv I should bet close to ATC there & fire most flops. I'd be folding to any aggression out of the guy on some turns depending on board runout & so on.

Poker Stars, $2 Buy-in (60/120 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players

MP1: 8,440 (70.3 bb)
MP2: 3,265 (27.2 bb)
MP3: 12,095 (100.8 bb)
CO: 23,995 (200 bb)
BTN: 12,545 (104.5 bb)
SB: 32,690 (272.4 bb)
Hero (BB): 11,205 (93.4 bb)
UTG+1: 14,910 (124.3 bb)
UTG+2: 11,325 (94.4 bb)

Preflop: (135) Hero is BB with K T
4 folds, MP3 calls 120, 3 folds, Hero raises to 480, MP3 calls 360

Flop: (1,155) A 9 2 (2 players)
Hero bets 600, MP3 calls 600

Turn: (2,355) Q (2 players)Hero??? How much?

Is the flop sizing good, or do you want to bet a little more if you think he's going to float, then fold a lot of turns regardless?

I would just wait to iso with position. Despite how bad he may be, KTo is going to be very difficult to play post almost always. And that turn card is pretty awful for us considering it helps all the draws that villain may float with otf. I would just c/f from here

I wouldn't raise from BB here.

c/f flop. Not a good spot/player to bluff.

guys, if he's limping in, then folding 66% of the time, his range is a lot of J9/78 crap and random weak broadways.

I picked up outs on the turn & think its a good spot....please offer reasons why its not good aside from "I wouldn't do it" or "not against this player" ....what player would you 2 barrel against than a loose/passive fish?

you can go smaller pre ~425, ~525 on flop

as played bet an amount ~half pot and be prepared to barrel lots of rivers

That 66% sample is only over 30 hands. This is literally a meaningless sample size and not sufficient enough for you to be confident when making plays like this.

And despite the fact that the turn card did help us some, it almost certainly helped villain more given his limp calling range and flop floating range. I think its fine to dbl barrel a person like this but not on that turn card.

1661 and fire most rivers. maybe 555 otf

pre is marginal but not bad if he sucks.

I also think we have enough of a sample on this guy to come to the conclusion that he does suck.

cbets fine. double barreling here is bad unless youre dedicated to triple barreling (or hitting gin!) iyam.

also, there are a lot of boards where i dont think the above is always true, but i do think it is in this case.

i agree but i think if he calls turn on this board there arent many rivers that will get him to fold

I think not choosing to tripple barrel here is a mistake.

As soon as he limps the pot is 435. He has shown tendencies to limp/fold a lot. Good players do not do this. Using furo's size of raising to 425, we are +ev if he folds 50%. They do this a lot at this stage, as soon as antes kick in....almost as if they feel connected to the ante and figure "I got some $$ in there already, call."

Even when he flats our raise preflop, here's what I think his range looks like:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

484,582,032 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
22-88, A2-AT, 89,9T,JT,QJ, QT, KT,KJ, KQ	53.03%	246,231,832	21,444,807
KhTc	46.97%	216,905,393	21,444,807

We're not in to bad of shape against that range so the times he does flat will still be immensely profitable if we get a few folds amongst the time we hit a TP/draw type hand.

We can rep a premium because of pre. He's shown tendencies to play his cards, stuck on level 1. Push him around.

If he flats the turn & we don't hit our ~30%? chance here, we're in pretty bad shape, which tells me that we need to get a ton of folds on the turn & river.....making me think its borderline spew.

But this is the spot I'm confused about....please help me understand this:

If there's 2355 in the pot on the turn, and we bet 1050, he needs to fold about 45% of the time to make a profit right there if we don't improve?

We have about a 30% against this range (excluding King & Jack high made flushes), plus we can take away a ton of 22, A2, A9 hands obv.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

10,164 trials (Exhaustive)

board: A92Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
22-88, A2-AT, 89,9T,JT,QJ, QT, K9, KT,KJ, KQ	67.52%	6,676	373
KhTc	32.48%	3,115	373

And about 40% equity against a more realistic(?) range:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

4,488 trials (Exhaustive)

board: A92Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
22-88, 89,9T,JT, K9, KT,KJ	59.86%	2,500	373
KhTc	40.14%	1,615	373

Question: If he does flat the turn X% of the time, what % of folds do we need to get on the river to offset the amount of time we're going to hit gin? How do I put all this together to factor in our equity + fold equity?

Is it something like:

We bet 1050, he folds 50% of the time, this yeilds X# of chips, 25% of the time he raises, we lose 1050 chips, 25% of the time he flats & we think we have between 30-40% equity against that range?

I understand the math will have lots of assumptions, but I'd like to learn more about this & sorry if its like a 2nd grade math problem or w/e. Hope its not a dumb question.

pre is bad. you want to raise with hands he is going to call with worse. like KQ is perfect here. KT is bad, he might l/c KQ/KJ.