Poker Stars $15+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t1630 M = 36.22
BB: t1490 M = 33.11
UTG: t1962 M = 43.60
UTG+1: t4730 M = 105.11
Hero (MP1): t1580 M = 35.11
MP2: t1410 M = 31.33
CO: t1460 M = 32.44
BTN: t1420 M = 31.56

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is MP1 with K K
UTG calls t30, 1 fold, Hero raises to t120, 2 folds, BTN calls t120, SB calls t105, 1 fold, UTG calls t90

Flop: (t510) 7 9 8 (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero ?


All players are loose and losing.

I feel like we will be committed after any reasonable c-bet, so anybody like pushing to charge draws (I am sure one of them will call) to the max?

Wouldn't betting 550 effectively be putting draws all-in? I doubt they would fold often for like 900 into a 1600 pot on the turn after calling so much on the flop.

I don't like it at all. You really think K10 or 3c4c etc is calling your overshove into this pot? If you feel your good and are willing to play for stacks then make a Pot Sized Bet and allow them to make the error of calling without proper odds.

I prefer to rasie bigger pre-flop and I'd be more than willing to check this flop and see what develops (folding much more often than not). If these people are bad your edge should be large in the endgame and stacking off in a four way pot w/ an overpair on that board is just bad in a STT.

that's if they think about it.

i've see people call with bad odds with 2 cards to come and fold with good odds with 1 card to come.

Are we getting it in on any river card if we bet 550? If so, why not maximize FE here vs a hand that could have good equity against us?

It's a 3 way pot and stacking off here before the draw hits is probably good unless they flopped the nuts of course.

Try again

I bet 150 - 180 PF. And bet like 425 on flop. They both checked, most likely looking for a free card to complete. I don't really see what the prob is here. Ur slightly higher PF raise prob would have gotten one of the 2 others to fold. Prob the limper who is prob the only one who can beat u w/ that flop. Maybe I'm wrong.

Hmmm, hard to say whether you want FE or value.

You can compare the ICM equity of stealing the pot to winning/losing vs a player an then determine which hands you would want them to call with and which ones you want them to fold. For example, vs SB winning an all-in is worth 21.02%, losing is worth 0%, and just stealing the pot on the flop is worth 13.07%. So the cutoff equity would be (13.07 - 0) / (21.02 - 0) = 62.2%. So if your hand has >62.2% vs SB's hand you would prefer to get all-in, whereas if your hand has less equity than that you would prefer SB to fold.

Encouraging a weak draw like QTo to call would be good, but encouraging any sort of combo-draw to call would be bad (even stuff like ATo / 76o). Obv making a made hand like 9x or A8 fold would suck a lot.

So it's hard to know exactly what a shove vs a pot-sized bet will accomplish. Whether your shove is mostly folding out combo-draws you prefer to fold or whether it is mostly folding out the weaker draws which you prefer to call.

I'm not too sure, but with a flop this wet you can definitely make a case for a shove.

i wish i had your game selection skills!

Nice analysis.

Obv the players in the hand are the loose ones.

i would go like 320 cuz i can still jam the turn just fine and gives me a chance to get away if they all go crazy.

With 1 limper before you preflop and the blinds so low I like raising to 150 preflop here.

Shoving on the flop is not very good IMO and here is why :

Your goal here is to bet for value, while making it incorrect for a draw to call your bet. By shoving you may indeed get a call by a worse hand, but what you are effectively doing is simplifying your opponents actions - effectively allowing him to play perfectly.

At this point in the hand you are really commiting your entire stack to this hand, but by making a raise close to pot here (maybe 450-500) you are both making it incorrect for a draw to call, and getting value from worse hands. It is important to note that you really dont mind a call here, yes they may draw out on you but over time you still gain.

I'm firing here - about t400 seemed right to me, but Sippin's t320 is defo sexy.

Agree with this.

I don't like betting bigger because:

- this is infact a think valuebet vs a lot of draws
- betting small gives you a chance to get away if turn is a drama card (you won't be committed). If you potbet this flop you're left behind with less then one potsized bet.