I feel like 100%-200% ROI is possible at the one I play. A lot of the regs just blind away while on their phone or reading a book, only play premium and always bet/lead post flop when they have it. The average player - reg or unknown - is way way too loose pre and then gets way way too tight near the bubble. If you can cover them by 50% or more around the money bubble and even more importantly the final table bubble - you can basically just rape their blinds with impunity. So you have to know when it's worth it to take a little extra risk to get that covering stack.

At every final table I've been to except one - everyone just wants to chip chop immediately (the only one they didn't I was 2nd in chips, lost top 2 to the CL's turned straight when I should have bet the flop and lost about $1k in equity). I'm fine with chip chop unless I have a truly dominating stack - then I'll ask for close to first place money. W/o a dominating stack though I'm willing to give up whatever edge I might have in knowing how to shove/call in exchange for massive reduced variance. Usually no one has more than 20BBs so there's basically no poker except push/fold/call anyway.

So the real bubble becomes 10-handed down to 9. 10th will get like $210 whereas the shortest stack will get $450 with the chop and it goes way up from there. And most of the regs know this. So that final table bubble is where if you have most of the people at your table covered - you can steal like a madman with very little risk until someone busts. Then you get paid and go home. No stressful 2 more hours of final table grind (usually).

It's always a dilemma in those spots, where you think you have an edge but it is pretty much a shove fest. I am no pro but try to think of hrly rate as well and I much prefer going home and just comfy up on my couch before going to bed. Not to mention when 6 handed at 1:30 am and shorties keep doubling up a2 vs kq lol.

It's not a dilemma for me. If everyone else wants to chop I don't want them pissed at me as the one guy who won't. They probably call you lighter - trying to bust you - which eats up some of your edge. Then they laugh when you bust 9th. Not worth it imo unless you really think you're some kind of serious pro at these things and can stomach the occasional painful early bustout for $2k less than you could have chopped for.

We had a kid who had a monster stack and refused to pay the bubble. He lost a couple pots, went on monkey tilt and ended up bubbling. I can't help but think that everyone being annoyed at him contributed to the tilt factor. When he got shortstacked someone asked if we wanted to pay the bubble now. NOPE - that ship has sailed. So satisfying when he busted.

One angle is to wait until the FT draw then decide if you want to chop. If the blinds are about to hit you and you have < 20BBs I guarantee your edge is not bigger than that. But if you start on the button that's a massive advantage. Then you can wait until the BB gets close (but not literally one hand away) and say "ok guys, I've had a change of heart, I'll chop if you want".

I don't do that - but I bet you could get away with it for a while.

I binked $7k at the Gardens $30k guaranteed last Friday night. Chopped as CL with 1.5M - everyone else was between 1.1M and 300k so no super shorties. Blinds were about to go up to 50k/75k + 75k ante - brutal - and it was already freaking 4:30am - and I'm old. Won a ~$5k race right before the final table. Skill.

Awesome win but it still ****ed up my whole weekend. Totally happy to just get out of there at that point. I was impressed with how many cash tables were still going at 4:30. I saw at least 10.